What can the United States and Venezuela gain from the new round of talks that began just days before the presidential elections?

Venezuela and the United States resumed public dialogue this Wednesday just 23 days before the presidential elections in which Nicolás Maduro He is seeking his second re-election and the opposition is seeking a victory that, for the moment, the polls predict with a wide advantage.

“Improving relations” was one of the points agreed upon in the first virtual meeting held by the delegations of both countries, according to what Maduro’s chief negotiator, Jorge Rodríguez, reported on his X account.

As EL TIEMPO had already exclusively reported, this first meeting was held online and, now, it is expected that next week the face-to-face meetings will take place, in which Mexico could be the venue.

In that case, the US would seek to ensure that Maduro carries out the election without suspending it or disqualifying the candidate. The government, for its part, seeks to obtain the guarantee of recognition from the international community if it manages to control the election through the electoral engineering it has designed.

“After this first meeting, we agreed on the willingness of both governments to work together to gain trust and improve relations,” said Rodríguez, adding that another point reached was “maintaining communications in a respectful and constructive manner.”

Unlike in previous meetings and initiatives, the opposition seems to be merely a spectator in this new chapter between Caracas and Washington. EL TIEMPO learned that, although the Unitary Platform (the main opposition organization) is aware of the process, for the moment it is not part of the conversation. It is expected that they will enter the process at the end of this week or at the beginning of the next, when a face-to-face meeting is scheduled.

The opposition’s chief negotiator, Gerardo Blyde, and Luis Aquiles Moreno will be representing the opposition as delegates. In addition, the participation of a third party is expected. In addition to Rodríguez, the governor of Miranda state, Héctor Rodríguez, will represent Chavismo. “The negotiating commission will be working to contribute to creating a climate of respect for democratic rules and to be attentive to any dialogue that really helps institutional normality and the normality of the elections,” said Omar Barboza, executive secretary of the Platform, on Tuesday.

Maduro said on Monday, when announcing the return of dialogue, that Washington had insisted “for two consecutive months” on the reestablishment of negotiations and that, “after thinking about it,” he accepted.

What both sides say about these negotiations

Regarding the negotiations, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council told Efe that he welcomed the dialogue in good faith, although he acknowledged that the path to democratic change in Venezuela will not be an easy task: “We welcome the dialogue in good faith. We are aware that democratic change will not be easy and requires a serious commitment,” he said.

The new rapprochement between Washington and Chavismo is taking place just weeks before the presidential elections, and according to the latest study by the consulting firm Datincorp, the opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González has a 62 percent approval rating, compared to 20.33 percent for Maduro. For analysts, these figures and the timing of the dialogue between the United States and Venezuela are key.

“This could be a determining factor for this surprise rapprochement, not because Maduro thinks he will recover, but because he needs to negotiate his exit,” political analyst Carlos Zambrano told EL TIEMPO.

For almost two years, the Maduro and Biden administrations have been holding talks, although most of them are secret. On some occasions, Maduro has said on television that the CIA has been in Caracas, that he has spoken with some US officials, but that is all. Also, some US-registered planes have landed in Caracas on several occasions and there has always been speculation that these are officials seeking to negotiate with Maduro.

EL TIEMPO learned that one of the points to be discussed in this new process will be Caracas’ request to eliminate the $15 million reward for Maduro’s capture, among other conditions for losing the presidential election.

In the latest negotiations between the parties, including the famous Barbados agreement that stipulated political guarantees for the presidential elections at the end of July, it seems that the Venezuelan president has always been the most favored.

In fact, the Barbados agreement was signed in October 2023, and with it, the US eased sanctions and reactivated repatriation flights. Then, before the end of that year, it was learned that Rodríguez had met with US representatives in Qatar. A few days later, Alex Saab was released in an exchange that was unthinkable at the time. Ten Americans were released from Venezuelan prisons in exchange for Saab, who is accused in the US of money laundering and being Maduro’s main front man.

Later in April, Maduro confirmed the meetings and showed images of Rodríguez alongside Brian Nichols, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs. The image shows the two signing documents.

Maduro insisted on Monday that he wants to end the confrontation with Washington and that he would even like to see the country’s embassy return to Caracas and Venezuela’s consular offices return to the United States.

Why negotiate with Nicolás Maduro?

There is no chance of that happening without both sides believing they are gaining something worth more than what they are giving up. The mere fact that the US government and the Venezuelan government are starting a bilateral negotiation again around the electoral event means that both sides believe they can gain something better than what they have.

For Luis Vicente León, director of the Datanálisis firm, for a negotiation to be successful, it is essential that both parties exchange things. “There is no possibility of this happening without both parties believing that they are gaining something that is worth more than what they are giving up. The mere fact that the US government and the Venezuelan government are starting a new bilateral negotiation around the electoral event means that both parties believe that they can gain something better than what they have,” León wrote in X.

León explained that it is most likely that both believe they will win the election, although not necessarily in the same way. “In that case, the US would seek to ensure that Maduro carries out the election without suspending it or disqualifying the candidate. The government, for its part, seeks to obtain the guarantee of recognition from the international community if it manages to control the election through the electoral engineering it has designed.”

Caracas and Washington broke relations in 2019 when the Donald Trump administration disavowed the Chavista leader and supported the self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó as interim president, a strategy that did not work to remove Maduro from office.

What Maria Corina Machado says

Regarding the first “virtual meeting” between officials from Venezuela and the United States, without diplomatic relations since 2019, EL TIEMPO exclusively interviewed María Corina Machado, the main leader of the Venezuelan opposition, who insisted that “the important thing is that something comes out of this.”

“We have said it a thousand times. There is the Barbados agreement that established mechanisms for monitoring, verification and compliance. For our part, we complied with everything and went much further. The Maduro regime has systematically violated the process. Why this sudden interest in reestablishing talks now? I don’t know and I don’t want to speculate,” said the founder of the political movement Vente Venezuela, which leads the polls for the July 28 presidential elections with Edmundo González, the candidate to whom Machado endorsed power after being disqualified.

Apparently, not all of the Venezuelan opposition was aware of the resumption of talks, but the Unitary Platform, the main opposition sector, expressed its satisfaction with the reestablishment of these negotiations.

Asked whether she believes that this scenario will give Maduro an advantage, as has happened before, Machado was emphatic in warning that this does not worry her. “I honestly believe that no one here is slacking, either inside or outside Venezuela. We have seen this even with the governments of the regi
on that have been very clear in defending international standards,” she said.

Finally, Machado added that “the Venezuelan conflict is of such magnitude and priority for the US, and for the region, in terms of its national security, that it is one of the few issues that has bipartisan support.”

“Everyone knows that the only way Maduro could stay in power is by force, he does not have the votes, and that would have terrible consequences for the region, not only in terms of his geopolitical ties with Russia, Iran, guerrilla groups and international terrorists, but of course in terms of migration,” the leader said.

Ana Maria Rodriguez Brazon – Weather correspondent – Caracas

STEPHANY ECHAVARRÍA – International Editor