Germany holds early elections on February 23. Another political earthquake for the European Union at a time when the world is pressing and the bloc is going through significant internal tensions as well.with doubts about the new Commission and a very divided Parliament. Meanwhile, in Berlin everything falls. The traffic light coalition (social democrats, greens and liberals) has never been reliable, since coming to power in 2022, and Olaf Scholz has not established himself as a firm leader either. And now what?
Daniel Gilanalyst at The Political Room specialized in the European Union, explains to 20 minutes “really From the beginning this coalition was expected to have a very complicated operation. because it was necessary to combine the demands for greater investment in ecological transition, infrastructure, technology, proposed above all by the Greens but also by the SPD, with the fiscal prudence of the FDP liberals, their opposition to raising taxes and their opposition to going into debt”, he summarizes, looking at the full photo. “At first they had to manage the recovery from the pandemic, so these issues became a little more flexible, which allowed the coalition, even with its tensions, to get going“, he clarifies.
The final reason, thus, for the fall is that social democrats and liberals do not understand each other, broadly speaking. The Greens have remained in the background, even despite having the economic Vice Presidency in their hands, in Robert Habeck, and for example the Foreign Ministry with Annalena Baerbock at the helm. They have made much less noise than the other two legs of the agreement.
“Germany is falling far behind”acknowledges Gil, who remembers Scholz’s plan to ‘divert’ investments towards the ecological transition. “The Constitutional Court declared that plan unconstitutional, leaving Germany with a 60 billion hole in its budget and no way to fill it“This was, says the analyst, “a self-imposed wound” from which the country has not yet asked itself to recover. It has not been able to balance the investments that reality demanded.
Germany is going through a deep almost identity crisis. 2024 has been – is being – the year in which the German country has hit recession, with an industry altered by global movements and in need of renewal. But the turmoil goes back further: the Russian invasion of Ukraine forced the traffic light government to make reforms that seemed unimaginable, as a historic investment in Defensethe reopening of the nuclear debate and severing trade ties with Moscow to the extent possible. Germany, in a way, returned to square one without really knowing how to move forward. To this we must also add the role of China, with whom Scholz wants to have a somewhat ‘kinder’ policy despite the strategic rivalry… and Beijing’s long hands to alter the dynamics of Europe. That is to say, nothing is clear for the Germany that the traffic light Executive wants (or wanted).
It has never been a reliable Government, it has been an Executive marked precisely by paralysis
“I have the feeling that it has never been a reliable Government, it has been an Executive marked precisely by paralysis. It’s a coalition that never really acted like a coalition. At all times you saw three speeches, the Greens a very strong speech on foreign policy with the SPD trying to mediate and the FDP always promulgating that fiscal prudence”, maintains the analyst. In this scenario, Scholz seems that he will reach the elections in due course. lower, and experts do not believe that the step of having broken the Executive will benefit him.
And while, AfD continues to grow. In the polls it is already the second force at the federal level, and will arrive in February after a victory in the Thuringian regional elections and also after its best historical result in the European elections. The bet for the national government is once again Alice Weidela woman who claims to break all the molds for an extreme right that has not fully adapted to the new times… but she has not needed it. The traditional conservatives do not want to govern with them, but they do not seem to care: AfD is clear that its time will come.
Scholz has not been able to cover up these doubts because Angela Merkel’s shadow continues to be long despite the passage of time. And with all that, Germany is likely to return to the ‘Merkel era’ in some ways. As? With a great coalition after elections for which the CDU leads the polls by a large margin. Furthermore, its current leader, Friedrich Merz, has completely closed the door to collaboration with the radical right.
“The most likely thing is a large coalition. The fundamental question is whether a grand coalition is worth it, depending on parliamentary arithmetic or a third partner is needed,” says Gil, placing the Greens or the liberals in the formula, but carefully: “In that case the scenario becomes quite complicated and we could reach a situation of instability and the achievement of a three-party coalition in which conflicting interests once again have to come together. And we have already seen that the German political system has not been able to unite those interests.” Olaf Scholz and his people have not passed this test, and they have also raised doubts as to whether those who arrive later will be able to do so.
All in all, the engine of the European Union is very affected and after Trump, all of Europe looks towards Berlin. It is where the old continent now plays its beans. Europe wants to boost itself, but for that it needs Germany (and France). In Brussels there is confidence that the February elections be just a stop in the workshop for the country, because there is a lot at stake. It is not meant too loudly, but in community spheres a phrase is repeated that now gains value: “If Germany falls, we will all go behind.”
#awaits #Germany #fall #traffic #light #coalition #future #touched #Scholz.. #AfD
