The fantastic Japanese track of Suzuka gives a start to the weekend entirely in the wetwith the pouring rain that literally flooded both free practice sessions, so much so as to force the cancellation of the Pirelli tests on the 2023 compounds. there was in both sessions, but the reliability of the technical findings found is obviously relative. The teams have tried to carry on anyway a draft of the technical program, but with a couple of hindsight in the background. The first is that absolutely dry conditions are foreseen for the qualification. The Suzuka track is an old fashioned track, which pays off overtaking is complicated (it will be very interesting to see how this year’s cars behave in this sense) and the starting position it will probably have a considerable bearing on the final result. So have a car at the top of the qualifying performance in the dry it will be decisive. The other thought is that the weather forecast for Sunday they are at the moment still uncertain. Some speak of rain after the Grand Prix, others of low intensity rain during the race. Both of these boundary conditions, therefore, push teams towards trim optimization for dry track conditionstrying to keep a few different options ready just in case.
With this in mind we have seen the Ferrari work with an entirely wet set-up in the first free practice session and then move on to an approach definitely more towards the dry in the second, with the replacement of the rear wing on the two F1-75s, passing to the medium load one. Characteristic of this particular wing is, among other things, too the higher efficiency with open DRS, useful in qualifying and in case of overtaking in the race. In this second configuration something went wrong on Leclerc’s car. The balancing on car number 16, discreet in the first free practice session, he revealed himself bad immediately in the second. L’front it proved extremely weakwith an accentuated understeer that neither the set-up variations available during the session nor Leclerc’s different driving style were able to correct. The dimension of this problem for Leclerc can be found in a radio team between the driver and the wall, proco before deciding to close the session, in which the Monegasque asked to stop to add 14 “clicks” (i.e. load step) to the front wing during the pit stop, but from the box they replied that they were already close to the maximum and that there were some available no more than 4. At that point, the pilot’s response was concise: “then there is something wrong”, And from there the decision to stop and do not turn further. Overall the feeling for Carlos Sainz is better, who, as is well known, is more at ease with an understeer car and who probably had a less extreme compromise than Leclerc. One should also be emphasized conservative mapping for Leclerc as perhaps we had never seen this year, even compared to Sainz, a sign that the reliability theme he remains present at Ferrari, with the need to extend the mileage of the drive units at every opportunity that presents itself, such as a day of free practice in the rain like the one just passed. However, we collected the data and compared Leclerc and Sainz to show the findings just pointed out.
In fact, the graph shows both the incredible differences in reach and traction between the two cars, and a very marked difficulty for Leclerc in the so-called “snake” section of the first sector, where it is needed a performing and reactive front.
However, among all the Mercedeswhich found a optimal car balanceand a trim obviously more oriented towards weather conditions present. It should be noted that once again in the first free practices Russell had complained of not being able to generate temperature in the tires, but then, as seen other times in the season, being able to “turn on” the W13 suddenly with some set-up changes targeted. On the other hand RedBull he worked and lapped a little, although he was still fast with both riders. The medium-load track with so much importance on aerodynamic efficiency and management of lateral load transfers, seems particularly in the ropes of the RB18, which, in dry conditions, will probably have an obstacle between itself and the pole. understeer, which sometimes emerged to haunt Verstappen during the season. Also considering the penalty taken at Monza to expand the engine fleet available to Verstappen, it is also likely that, on Honda’s home track, the Milton Keynes team deliberate a few more horses for this weekend, in an attempt to secure Verstappen’s title on the track owned by the Japanese manufacturer. For these factors Verstappen starts, for now, with the absolutes underdogs, even if what happens in qualifying will be decisive. However, we compared the data of Sainz’s, Russell’s (best ever) and Verstappen’s lap to make some surveys of the case.
Let’s see how evident it is that Mercedes has certainly brought the car to the track with more grip in wet conditions. The speed differences at turn 1, in the snake and in the section of the “Spoon” (turn 14) are macroscopically in favor of Russellwhile the straight-line speeds are, for the British, largely the minor ones of the three in comparison. It therefore seems that, also with a view to optimizing the time on the track in absolute (also thinking about the data collection for 2023), Mercedes has faced the second session with a wet settingcontrary to what we find for Sainz and Verstappen, evidently on track with a compromise that sought to collect useful data for dry qualifications. Without DRS the top speeds of Ferrari and RedBull were roughly the samebut, of course, these conditions do not allow us to draw any conclusions, so much so that Verstappen does not has ever used eighth gearunlike Sainz and Russell.
The third free practice session and the qualification will instead be particularly dense It is probably foughton one of the most beautiful tracks in the world.
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