The West promised to sustain and support Ukraine as long as necessary. That statement has become a motto with which almost every leader sprinkles his speeches. But with the full-scale invasion of Russia heading into its 700th day, that slogan threatens to become deflated. The economic, diplomatic and military support of the United States and the EU shows signs of wear. Washington has serious problems keeping its financing promises and the Union, where Kiev's future accession is also being debated, is embarked on intense negotiations to overcome Hungary's blockade and carry out a special package of 50 billion euros to keep it afloat. the country. Political struggles in the West and slow military production capacity take their toll on support for kyiv. And the possible cracks in unity are already ammunition for the Kremlin, which has intensified its disinformation and propaganda operations about Western fatigue and awaits any sign of deterioration to talk about the political failure of the US and the EU.
After the refusal of the United States Senate to approve 60 billion dollars (about 55.7 billion euros) in financial support for Ukraine, which some Republicans want to make depend on severe immigration measures, fears are growing around the debate on Kiev when start the campaign for the presidential elections next year. And even more so if the Republican Donald Trump, who has not stood out precisely because of a bad relationship with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, returns to the White House.
With this swell in the background, this week is key for the future of Ukraine. The heads of State and Government will meet at a summit that begins on Thursday, where this new economic package will be negotiated as a long-term commitment to the invaded country and the decision will also be made – or not – to open the talks so that Ukraine enters the EU.
All at a decisive moment, in which Kiev faces its own political problems, where citizens are increasingly exhausted and the counteroffensive is stalled with hardly any progress against a Russia firm in its defenses and that, faced with the slow supply capacity west to Kiev, has intensified its military production capacity despite the state of its economy and Western sanctions, according to several intelligence reports. “The Union has claimed that Ukraine fights for European values,” comments a senior European diplomat. “And he is not aware of the impact for Europe, in every sense, if the war is lost. That sense of urgency from the first months of the invasion has evaporated,” she adds.
Ukraine has become a hostage to partisan struggles in the United States, says Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank. Also from the European elections in June. Kiev is an important bargaining chip for the blackmail of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is vetoing the opening of Ukraine's accession negotiations to the EU while trying to get Brussels to unfreeze funds blocked for his breaches of the rule of law. At the same time, he feeds his nationalist discourse at home with slander about the supposed impact of sanctions on Russia and against military support for kyiv.
Lutsevych believes that this time, Orbán's opposition—whom leaders such as the Spanish Pedro Sánchez, the French Emmanuel Macron or the Estonian Kaja Kallas are trying to convince with an intense diplomatic offensive—is not merely transactional. “It has a lot to do with the meeting he had with Putin in China,” says the expert by phone, who believes that Orbán is trying to crack the unity of the EU and give material to Russia for its campaigns on the supposed abandonment of Ukraine. , which serve to “undermine the spirit of resistance of the Ukrainians” and fuel doubts in the West, which suffers its own problems and the impact of the war.
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An intelligence officer who deals with issues of disinformation and propaganda highlights that messages of this type have increased in recent months. “Ukraine will become a black hole absorbing more and more resources and people,” said the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, this week. A message similar to the one Orbán spreads.
Talks for Ukraine to join the community club – which a majority of member states want to start, as the European Commission has recommended – could last for years. They are not the lifeline that economic aid and military support do represent. But the prospect of joining the Union represents a political and moral boost for Ukraine, an anchor, a more concrete guarantee than that slogan that promises to maintain support “as long as necessary.”
Hyperinflation risk
kyiv, at risk of hyperinflation, urgently needs Western economic support. But while Western lawmakers and politicians have settled into debates over aid to the invaded country, their economic and military aid to Ukraine has reached an all-time low this fall, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute. Between August and October 2023, financial aid has fallen drastically (90% compared to the same period of the previous year) to 2.11 billion euros, the lowest amount since January 2022, according to data collected by the German center. Meanwhile, several polls in the US and the EU show that Western citizens' support for Ukraine has not plummeted and that a majority remains in favor of sending support to kyiv.
Borja Lasheras, an international policy expert who advises the EU External Action Service on Ukraine, believes that the risk of collapse of fundamental elements of the Western policy of support for Kiev is explained by the push for the policy of certain extremist minorities. “This is clearly the case of the United States, where there is an influential minority that represents around 30% of the most extremist Republican bases, which is managing to subvert a policy of support that still commands majority support and that has no qualms about putting precedents first.” short-termists at the risk of giving Putin more opportunities,” he says by phone from Ukraine.
“In the case of Europe there are nuances, because there is a majority of member states that are in favor of starting accession negotiations due to their political importance and as a sign of deterrence to Putin and in favor of the 50 billion package, which provides clarity as to financial stability to Ukraine; but there is a State, Hungary, and some other behind [Austria, por ejemplo quiere vincular la apertura de negociaciones con Ucrania con las de Bosnia, lo que lastra para muchos la decisión]which stop these almost unanimous initiatives and show the dysfunctionality of our rules,” says Lasheras.
Kiev also faces other problems, such as the blockage of products and transport on its borders with Poland, which is just the appetizer of what may come when the accession negotiation begins and as Kiev begins to compete with its neighbors for European subsidies. Despite this, a majority of European citizens believe that, in light of the large-scale invasion, enlargement must be accelerated, according to a special Eurobarometer published last week ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. next year and in which the absorption of new members will be a substantial debate.
On the front lines, where lack of ammunition has become a chronic problem despite promises of supply (like those million rounds of EU artillery), that debate over support is a matter of life and death. “It is the same thing that we have been repeating for a year; “We have enough to not bleed to death, but not to advance,” laments through encrypted messages the head of a brigade fighting in the southeast, one of the main focuses of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The problem, he summarizes, is that everything arrives “by drip” when what is necessary is to receive long-range missiles. Added to this is the lack of soldiers, a growing problem. The Ukrainian war is a combination of 20th century battles with 21st century elements, for which kyiv is trying to build its own capabilities with the support of its allies, something that would truly be a turning point.
Because Ukraine has already entered its second winter of large-scale war, crowned with attacks on civil and energy infrastructure. And the conflict will drag on, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned in September, who a few days ago ventured that we must be prepared for bad news from the front. Several intelligence reports maintain that without new Western support Russia could make significant territorial advances.
The talks on Ukraine in Brussels this week are crucial not only for the invaded country, but also for the EU, where as the debate on the budget review and the 50 billion package for Ukraine progresses, a search for a plan B is already beginning. to guarantee that sustenance, at least, through bilateral plans. But although support for kyiv would be partially saved, a large crack would appear in the Union. The first substantial and visible since the beginning of the Russian invasion, on February 24, 2022, which blew up the European security architecture. “If Ukraine receives a double refusal, for funds and accession, it will be shameful. It will be a monumental failure and will weaken the EU, which is not the geopolitical Union that it claims,” says Lutsevych, who warns: “Either of the two refusals will also be a sign to Putin that the political future of Ukraine is not decided. , that it remains in limbo. And he will play into his narrative to the global south that autocracies can command policies and resources while the EU is trapped in its own dysfunction.”
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