Four days of rain from North to South: October begins with autumn-style bad weather due to low pressure transiting between Switzerland and Germany, while another low pressure slides from the English Channel towards Italy.
Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist on the website www.iLMeteo.it, confirms that in the next few hours the cities that will receive the most rain will be Gorizia, Trieste and Udine, but in practice the entire Triveneto, Eastern Liguria and Tuscany will be hit by showers and precipitation intense; from late morning an improvement is expected between western Lombardy and Piedmont, while some rain will also reach Umbria and northern Lazio.
Due to bad weather maximums will fall in the Centre-North, while in the South they will risethanks to the warm southern currents from Libya: in Syracuse, Catania and Bari we will fluctuate around 30-32°C.
The most extreme bad weather will hit Italy on Thursday: intense phenomena are feared towards Central Italy, even towards the capital. The cause is to be found in a very humid flow from the west south-west, driven by the deepening of a cyclone of around 998 hPa (or millibar which is equivalent) over the Tyrrhenian Sea.
Our weather models indicate Terni, Ancona and Rome as the first three cities with the greatest rainfall accumulations in 24 hoursbut also in the North and between Campania and Puglia there will be widespread and intense phenomena. Temperatures will drop in the rainiest areas, while they will rise further in the far South with 32-33°C in Sicily and 30°C in Calabria.
Friday 4 October, the day of Saint Francis of Assisi, there will also be a lot of rain in Umbria, throughout the Centre, in the North-East (unfortunately also in the areas affected by the flood in Romagna) and from Campania towards Puglia: at the moment violent storms are feared in Salento and on the Lower Tyrrhenian coast, thanks to the high temperatures of both the air and the sea in recent days.
The temperatures will instead be almost wintry in the eastern Alps where snowflakes above 1800 meters above sea level cannot be ruled out.
The good news will only come on the weekend with the gradual removal of the cyclone towards Greece: we will have a gradual improvement although, on the Adriatic side and in the South, there will still be many showers and local thunderstorms until Sunday morning, with some rain still expected in the capital on Saturday.
This year Autumn began with a lot of rain and average temperatures: in 2022 and 2023, in this period of the year, highs above 30°C were still recorded even in the North, lots of sun and an African anticyclone.
2024, after a very long series of record-breaking months of heat, seems instead to be heading towards a more unstable and sub-average period. Who knows if next winter will surprise us with lots of snow and frost, at the moment the seasonal forecasts do not show a definitive sign.
IN DETAIL
Wednesday 2. In the North: rains and showers, more intense in Eastern Liguria and Friuli Venezia Giulia. In the Center: overcast skies, showers in Tuscany; windy. In the South: sunny and very hot for the period.
Thursday 3. In the North: bad weather; windy. In the Center: bad weather; windy. In the South: worse in Campania with rain and thunderstorms; windy.
Friday 4. In the North: rains in the North-East; windy. In the Center: at times unstable. In the South: strong instability.
Trend: improves on Saturday in the North and everywhere on Sunday.
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