The high and level pressure field present on the Mediterranean is attenuating due to the approach of a vast Atlantic perturbed system that extends from southern Scandinavia to the Iberian Peninsula. The perturbation is preceded by tepid southern currents, mainly siroccals, which on the one hand will maintain relatively mild temperatures in many regions, on the other hand will favor the thickening of clouds with some rain mainly in the North-West. Tomorrow the real perturbed front is expected which will give way to a decisive worsening, with intense and abundant rainfall that will initially affect the North-West and then extend towards the North-East going to also affect the central Tyrrhenian regions.
On Tuesday, in its slow eastward progress – the iconameteo.it meteorologists say – the cloudy system will persist in the North-East and along the Tyrrhenian Sea as far as Sicily, while a second perturbation, still in the middle of the Atlantic, will quickly reach the Western Europe and the Alps to then converge towards the central Mediterranean where, with good probability, it will contribute to generating a depression right next to Italy with consequent triggering of conditions of instability in the following days.
For the next few hours, predominance of sunny weather on the mid-lower Adriatic and Sardinia. More or less compact clouds in the rest of the country with intermittent weak rains more likely in the central-western alpine areas, upper Piedmont, upper Lombardy, Liguria and Friuli Venezia Giulia. Possible showers or thunderstorms on Calabria and Sicily, especially in the Ionian and southern sectors; some sporadic rain not excluded on Tuscany, Lazio and Campania. In the evening, the rains will likely intensify in the upper Piedmont. Maximum temperatures slightly decreasing in the extreme North-West, increasing in Sardinia and in the regions of the Adriatic side. Values beyond the norm in Emilia Romagna and in much of the Center-South where it can still exceed 25 degrees.
Winds from the south or south-east intensifying, moderate or tense over most of the west and Adriatic seas. Seas: slightly rough Ionian, lower Adriatic and south-eastern Tyrrhenian; the remaining basins tend to be rough, up to very rough in the evening the Channel of Sardinia and the south-western Tyrrhenian.
On Monday, 4 October, in Romagna, the central Adriatic regions, the southern regions and Sicily, the weather is mostly sunny, except for modest cloud cover in the Ionian sectors. In the rest of the country, cloudiness is increasing, even compact over a large part of the north and around the Ligurian coast. Rain and showers initially in the North-West, in the west of Tuscany and in Friuli Venezia Giulia. In the second part of the day, intensifying precipitation, also of a stormy nature, in the North-West, Tuscany and Sardinia, in subsequent extension towards the evening to the rest of the North-East and upper Lazio.
Probably very abundant phenomena, with the risk of intense storms in the North-West and upper Tuscany. Stationary or slightly increasing temperatures: maximum temperatures even above 25 degrees in the Center-South, with peaks close to 30 degrees in Sardinia. Southern winds intensifying, with gusts up to 50-60 km / h: prevalence of the Scirocco over the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic, of the Libeccio over the sea and the Sardinia Channel. Strong gusts of wind in stormy areas. Seas: calm or slightly moved the southern Adriatic, the Ionian and the south-eastern Tyrrhenian; all the other basins moved or very rough, up to locally rough the western Tyrrhenian and eastern Ligurian.
On Tuesday 5 October, however, a disturbed phase over much of Italy with variable clouds probably not associated with significant rainfall only in the regions of the middle and lower Adriatic and in Sardinia. Elsewhere many clouds. In the North, numerous rains, abundant and persistent, also of a downpour or thunderstorm character with possible local storms, on high Piedmont, Lombardy and Triveneto, especially on the Alpine sector and adjacent plains; initial heavy rains or showers also in Liguria, western Emilia and in the Apennines, elsewhere it rains gradually weaker and more isolated. Conditions of instability also in the Tyrrhenian regions with scattered rains and possible showers, including thunderstorms, on Tuscany, Lazio, Campania, western Sicily, in the evening also on Tyrrhenian Calabria.
In the evening some thunderstorms also in Salento. Maximum temperatures decreasing in the Northeast, in the Tyrrhenian regions up to Campania, in Sardinia and in western Sicily; possible rises instead on the middle and lower Adriatic and in the rest of the South with temperatures still above the norm and peaks close to 30 degrees. Winds from moderate to thesis of Libeccio on the Ligurian and of Scirocco on the Adriatic; winds up to moderate and mostly southerly also in the rest of Italy with possible strong gusts in stormy areas. Mari: the Ligurian is rough, the lower Adriatic, the Ionian and the south-eastern Tyrrhenian have recently moved to rough, the remaining basins have moved to a lot.