Erika Berenguer, an ecologist with a specialization in the Amazon from Oxford and Lancaster Universities, is one of the main scientists studying the functioning of the rainforest in the face of the imbalance caused by human beings.
The AFP asked the 38-year-old Brazilian woman to analyze the latest research on the Amazon to explain what it means to people.
– There are many headlines lately about deforestation and destruction in the Amazon. What does science say about the rainforest?
– The results are really terrible. They are in line with discussions of the ‘inflection point’ (at which the rainforest would become savannah). One study found that in southeastern Amazonia, in the dry season, the temperature increased by 2.5 degrees (in the last 40 years). This is truly apocalyptic.
I don’t think even academics were prepared for that. The Paris Agreement tries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, and 2.5 degrees in the Amazon is huge.
In the Northeast, there was a 34% reduction in rainfall in the dry season.
The implications of all this are that if you have a warmer, drier climate, fires will simply spread through the jungle. And so you go through this feedback loop, this vicious cycle of horror.
– Do we still have time to save the Amazon? What if we don’t? –
– That’s the million dollar question. We’ll never know what the inflection point is until we get past it, that’s just the definition of an inflection point. But different parts of the Amazon are moving toward that point at different rates.
If we get past the tipping point, that’s the end, and I don’t say this lightly. We are talking about the collapse of the most biodiverse place on the planet, with millions and millions of people becoming climate refugees. Rainfall patterns will change across South America.
Without rain we won’t have hydroelectricity, so that will mean the collapse of industry in Brazil and therefore the collapse of one of the biggest economies in the world, one of the biggest food suppliers in the world. We cannot live in a world without the Amazon.
– Your WhatsApp profile picture has the word “hope” written in big letters. What keeps you hopeful about the Amazon?
– Chocolate (laughs). But really, there is definitely hope for change. During my lifetime, I’ve seen a reduction of more than 80% in deforestation between 2004 and 2012. It wasn’t easy; coordination between various agencies is needed, but they did. So why can’t we see it again?
Worldwide, there are multiple levels of solutions for everyone in the world. Everyone has to reduce their carbon footprint.
Nobody can live in a cave anymore, we must think deeply about what we can do. We also need to press for transparency about the basic products that come from the Amazon, to know where the gold we buy comes from, where the meat we eat comes from.
But most importantly, we must insist on structural changes. We need to pressure our governments and companies to reduce emissions.
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