While the incidence in Italy increases, scientists are looking for a predictable trend that would help with health planning and the organization of vaccination campaigns.
since the start of the Covid pandemic that scientists have been wondering if the virus could fit one periodic scheme, linked to the alternation of seasons or other factors. A precise scheme (such as that of the flu) would help for health planning and the organization of vaccination campaigns.
Waves and seasons
SARS-CoV-2, however, so far escaped the classifications, especially those related to temperatures: certainly summer (with life in the open air) does not generally favor the transmission of an airborne virus, but when a very contagious variant finds susceptible people it spreads all the same. We experienced it this summer with the arrival of Omicron and theBA.5 wave in Italy. Rather, Covid appears to be producing waves related to the new variants.
It depends on the variants
An article talks about it recently published on British Medical Journal (BMJ), which takes stock of the evolution of the coronavirus. The most repeated pattern so far is that of waves every three months or so linked to the arrival of new variants (or sub-variants): the relative peaks are always lower (see the graph above with the waves of infections in three areas of the world), a sign that the population that the virus encounters defense from vaccination or previous immunity It therefore appears that the pattern is two to three waves a year – argue the scientists interviewed in the article – and that this model could also be confirmed for the future, especially as long as the variants continue to be selected to achieve greater transmissibility and immune evasion.
Are there regional models?
The proposed scheme applies to the entire vaccinated Western world, but not to the countries that have adopted the Zero Covid modelsuch as Japan (see the relative waves, again in the graph above), which recorded extremely sharp increases followed by strong drops, but with increasingly higher peaks (unlike us), because the state of immunity of departure of the population was at a very low level.
And in the future?
Omicron is now the only variant present in the Variants of Concern (VOC) List of the World Health Organization (WHO), although there are seven other sub-variants under monitoring. Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, UK, predicts that we will have a plateau and then another variant – Omicron or not, we don’t know (states, ed) – which will occur in the period September-October.
In Italy the incidence is increasing
Meanwhile, in Italy for the first time after several weeks, an increase in the incidence is observed. In the weekly report of the Higher Institute of Health (ISS) for monitoring the pandemic, they are indicated 2 Regions classified as high risk (Piedmont and Tuscany) and 11 Regions at moderate risk. Autumn has arrived and, with the cooler season, so does everyday life in enclosed spaces. For now, however, it does not seem that there are new variants on the horizon destined to undermine BA.5 and the specific vaccination for Omicron, on the other hand, has already been approved in Italy and can be requested as a fourth dose from 12 years upwards.
September 24, 2022 (change September 24, 2022 | 10:29)
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