War of Ukraine Russia takes over Ukraine more than the Eastern Puppet Republics, experts say: “Putin is obsessed”

The message from hybrid threats and foreign and security policy experts is cold. Kharkiv and Mariupol may be as follows. What Russia is doing in Ukraine, it can later do the same elsewhere.

22.2. 19:10

Russian president Vladimir Putin solution recognizes the independence of the artificial states of eastern Ukraine undermines the security of the whole of Europe, says the director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute Kristi Raik.

“The threat to European security is slightly articulated. We are in a deep crisis. ”

However, Finland and the Baltic countries, the Baltic Sea region, are not facing an immediate military threat.

“Hybrid influence is everywhere, but there is no immediate military threat now.”

The same was said by the President Sauli Niinistö in its media event on Tuesday day: The Baltic Sea is calm.

“But the situation is very difficult,” Kristi Raik continues.

“And after yesterday’s decisions by Russia, it will only get worse and last for a long time.”

Line which Putin has chosen is also devastating for Russia itself, according to Raik. Prolonging the crisis will cost money and possibly lives, tightening sanctions are promised, and there is no unreserved support for possible hostilities among Russian citizens.

“Putin is obsessed with gaining control of Ukraine. As the means harden, so will the price for Russia. Ukraine is fighting and Russia will not be subjugated by military force. “

According to Raik, Putin will try to perform and present the situation as a victorious step.

“This post doesn’t sink. It seems that Putin’s sense of reality is missing and he does not want to find a way out of the situation by negotiating. “

Raik hopes for retaliation: a lot now depends on how the West reacts. Sanctions should be heavy on him.

“My sympathies are with the Ukrainian side, and I agree with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He asked the West: Isn’t it time for sanctions now? ”

Katri Pynnöniemi, Assistant Professor of Russian Security Policy.

To Russia it is hardly enough for the “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine to be in its possession, says Russia’s assistant professor of security policy Katri Pynnöniemi.

“Russia’s goal is to create a situation in Ukraine where its national interests are realized to the maximum. From this point of view, the current situation, ie the open takeover of the Russian-occupied territories, is not enough.

“On the other hand, Russia can also pursue this goal by inciting domestic political chaos in Ukraine, without escalating the military conflict.”

Estimates of the situation vary.

“Maybe the question has been deliberately left open,” Pynnöniemi ponders.

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Russia is now playing a big game, says the head of the Vulnerability and Resilience Unit at the Hybrid Threat Research Center Jukka Savolainen.

“Now that extensive game is showing in Ukraine and Belarus. One day it will be seen somewhere else. ”

Savolainen assesses the development of the situation in Ukraine on a three-point scale. The first stage has been seen: Eastern Ukraine de facto The “People’s Republics” under Russian control have been recognized and Russian troops are being brought in openly on the basis of a request for assistance.

“This has led to the elimination of one runoff failure in the Minsk ceasefire agreement. If the situation were to stand still, one day a peace agreement could be reached in which Ukraine would remain viable. ”

Next at a possible stage, the Donbass region will be assessed more broadly than just the “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. Savolainen emphasizes the word possible: probabilities should not be assessed.

“The Donbass region also includes the cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol. Russia may have an interest in looking at the situation in this way, as significant areas of Ukraine’s energy production are located in those areas. “

Savolainen reminds that during the conquest of Crimea, Russia also got huge gas fields in Crimea. The Kharkiv region could also benefit. In addition, the capture of Kharkov and Mariupol would have the advantage of making Ukraine more unstable.

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“The mobilizations announced in Donetsk and Luhansk are dangerous for this situation.”

It was long estimated that the forces brought by Russia to Ukraine’s borders would not be enough to take over Ukraine. But now, if the possibility of using the Belarusian army and the troops of Donetsk and Luhansk as cannon fodder is included, different numbers are reached.

“Russia can use a civil war-type narrative here if, for example, it marches Ukrainians from Donetsk and Luhansk to Kharkov and Mariupol to claim their rights. Is it still possible, then, not to regard this as direct intervention by the West? ‘

Third Savolainen mentions the seizure of sites from the coast as an opportunity. Russia has a dozen landing craft in the Black Sea.

“These can effectively take over coastal targets as part of wider land warfare.”

In addition to all of the above steps and options, Russia can conduct hybrid operations at sea.

“By disrupting Ukraine’s maritime traffic, they could cause damage to Ukraine without clearly meeting the characteristics of hostilities.”

Savolainen calls for monitoring the maritime dimension, as the Baltic Sea, which is close to Finland, is also a strategically important sea for Russia.

Pro-Russian separatists celebrate Russia’s decision to recognize the “people’s republics” of eastern Ukraine late Monday in Donetsk.

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