The extension this Tuesday for “two more months” by the UN of the truce in force in Yemen extends hopes for peace in a country devastated by 8 years of war and plunged into the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. However, while the exhausted belligerents have been forced to silence their weapons, the tensions at the origin of the conflict remain unresolved. Analysis.
“I am pleased to announce that the parties have agreed to extend the truce, under the same conditions, for another two months, from August 2, 2022 to October 2, 2022,” the UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg.
For Yemen, these words are ultimately the hope extended by the Swedish diplomat. The poorest state on the Arabian peninsula and what the Greeks and Romans called ‘Happy Arabia’ is facing the most serious humanitarian crisis of our time.
This catastrophe is fed by a devastating conflict: the one that opposes -in general terms- the Yemeni government forces, supported by a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia since 2015, to the Houthi rebels, descendants of a population of Shiite obedience, supported by Iran, Riyadh’s rival in the region.
The government side is represented by a “presidential council”, since the president, Abd Rabbo Mansour, discredited by exile, delegated his power to it last April.
According to the United Nations, the war in Yemen has left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. Two-thirds of the population is in need of humanitarian aid, in particular to deal with the risk of large-scale famine.
The ongoing ceasefire “includes a commitment by the parties to intensify negotiations to reach an extended truce agreement as soon as possible,” Hans Grundberg said in a statement.
According to the official, negotiations are ongoing through the UN “to consolidate the opportunity offered by the truce to move towards a lasting peace.” A two-month truce was achieved in Yemen on April 2, which was extended for an identical period on June 2, giving Yemenis a rare reprieve. As in June, the announcement of the renewal of the truce was made at the last moment, the same day it was supposed to end.
“The main objective of the current truce remains to tangibly relieve civilians and create an environment conducive to a peaceful resolution of the conflict through a comprehensive political process,” said the UN envoy for Yemen.
broken hopes
This objective has been partially achieved, according to numerous humanitarian organizations on the ground: the ceasefire has made it possible in four months to reduce “considerably” the number of civilian victims and facilitate the transport of fuel, which has led to a “good operation of public services. The truce has been relatively respected on the ground, despite sporadic violations, according to these NGOs, which include Action contre la Faim, Handicap International, Doctors of the World, Oxfam and Save the Children.
Since 2015, the upsurge in violence has repeatedly destroyed previous hopes for peace. As in 2021, as Washington announced the end of US support for the Saudi-led coalition, in a “goodwill” gesture toward Tehran and its Houthi protégés. The latter, however, had barely grasped this outstretched hand, instead reinforcing their offensive on Marib, in the north of the country.
Why, then, does this national truce – the first in 7 years – seem to perpetuate itself? How to explain the (very) cautious optimism of a Joe Biden who, on Tuesday, August 2, greeted an “unprecedented calm” in Yemen? After 8 years of war, “the belligerents are almost exhausted”, explains David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris), author of numerous publications on the Arabian Peninsula.
“Especially because the scenario of a ‘military turning point’ never materialized at the end of the race”, adds the editor-in-chief of the magazine ‘Orients Stratégique’: The battle of Marib, in the north of the country, in 2021 , could have embodied this turn – in favor of one or the other side – but it was not like that: rather we are witnessing a “military stalemate”.
However, Yemen is “very far” from a lasting peace, says the researcher. According to him, “every actor, however, has found, for the time being, an interest in the continuation of the truce”, good news for the civilian populations.
the pitfalls
However, this extension was difficult to accept. Until the hours before its formalization, on Tuesday, the belligerents had repeatedly accused each other of violations of their reciprocal obligations. Among them, the thorny question of the payment of civil servants’ salaries, the opening of blocked highways, as in the city besieged by the rebels of Taëz, a more regular transport of fuels to the ports of Hodeida (west) as well as a extension of flights to and from Sana’a airport (north), previously closed to civil traffic.
Although on May 16 the first commercial plane in six years was able to take off from the Yemeni capital, these authorizations remain “conditional and limited to certain types of flight,” says David Rigoulet-Roze.
A dangerous source of frustration for the Houthis, who have long dangled a “sword of Damocles” over diplomatic efforts, threatening not to extend the truce if air traffic is not restored as per their demands, observes David Rigoulet-Roze . But this point is a “very sensitive issue” for the pro-government coalition, says the researcher.
Yemeni rebels, backed by Iran, gradually secured control of Sanaa starting in 2014, toppling President Ali Abdallah Saleh with a rocket fire in 2017. Therefore, for the pro-Saudi side, explains David Rigoulet-Roze, reestablish normal air traffic over Sana’a would potentially be equivalent to opening the skies over the capital to Tehran, accused of supplying arms to the rebel ranks.
multiple degrees of conflict
If the Yemeni issue continues to be so complex, David Rigoulet-Roze explains, in essence, it is due to the intertwining of multiple degrees of “intra-Yemenite” conflict (tribal, clan, north-south…) in which they interfered. regional powers. Like Riyadh, for example.
“Long before the truce, the latter had long been seeking to get rid of a war that Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman unwisely unleashed in 2015.” For Saudi Arabia this conflict is at once a “financial abyss, a strategic impasse and a humanitarian tragedy”, analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze. A poor showcase for a kingdom that wants to seduce foreign investors, moved by its “vision” of a horizon freed from oil revenues.
However, no actor in the conflict can foresee its end without “saving face, or making a number of gains”, adds David Rigoulet-Roze. For example, the separatists of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), who consider themselves damaged by the reunification of the country in 1990, will never accept a peace that implies a return to “complete guardianship of Sanaa”, observes the peninsula specialist arabic
Is the war in Ukraine changing things? In late June, the United Nations World Food Program announced further reductions in aid due to chronic funding shortfalls, inflation and the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine.
The specter of the worsening of an already disastrous situation is in Yemen the source of immense concern, notes David Rigoulet-Roze, and this for both parties to the conflict. “Rebels as well as loyalists are now looking for a way out of this crisis,” estimates the researcher. But no one – not even the UN – has yet found the door.
*Article adapted from its original in French
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