On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin shocked the world by launching a “special military operation” in Ukraine to defend the pro-Russian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Although at first Putin did not specify the magnitude of the so-called military operation, the Russian invasion celebrates three months today with a critical balance in terms of loss of life and economic and social damage in both countries and in the world.
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This is an ABC about the balance of the war in Ukraine, three months after Russia decided to invade that country with the excuse of denazifying it.
How many people have been affected by the crisis?
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), 14 million Ukrainians, more than a quarter of the national population, have had to leave their homes this year because of the Russian invasion.
Eight million of these Ukrainians are internally displaced and more than six million are refugees in other countries, according to figures from UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Before the conflict, Ukraine had 37 million inhabitants in the territories controlled by kyiv, which excludes the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, and the eastern areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
These figures make Ukraine one of the fastest-evolving refugee crises in recent decades. Furthermore, the crisis is the worst that Europe has experienced since the end of the Second World War (1939-45).
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According to UNHCR figures, the figure even exceeds the exodus that has taken place in recent years from Venezuela due to the political and economic crisis. Six million people have left the Caribbean country.
Although the agency indicates that more than 1.7 million Ukrainians have re-entered their country since the beginning of the war, it stresses that in many cases it could be pendulum movements (people who enter and leave often) that do not show in no case a stable flow of returnees.
What is the number of fatalities?
The figures are uncertain. As of May 23, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has registered up to 13,341 alleged crimes of aggression and war crimes by Russia in Ukraine, according to its Telegram account.
According to the UN, So far almost 4,000 civilians have died in the Russian war in Ukraine. However, the figures presented by the authorities in the middle of the Davos Forum that began this Monday are higher.
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For them, the balance of victims until May 6 includes 4,177 dead civilians, including 226 children, and 4,378 wounded, including 417 children.
But in some places, like Mariupol, where the Russian siege and shelling lasted for weeks, the figure is unknown. The global loss figure would be much higher if one takes into account that the Ukrainian authorities speak of 20,000 people killed in Mariupol alone.
And the affected soldiers?
The figure is also not exact. Russia has not updated the data since March 25, when it stated that 1,351 soldiers had died on Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine, for its part, speaks of 29,200 Russian soldiers killed in the fighting. According to the balance of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, they have also managed to destroy 1,293 battle tanks, 2,206 vehicles, 204 planes and at least 170 helicopters.
On the Ukrainian side the figures are also unclear. Zelenski came to speak of between 2,000 and 3,000 soldiers of his troops deceased, but there is no recent update on the matter.
What has been the effect on the Ukrainian economy?
According to estimates by the Ministry of Economy and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), the total losses of the Ukrainian economy due to the war – both direct and indirect – range between 564,000 million and 600,000 million dollars.
That is the conclusion of an analysis carried out by a KSE team within the framework of the “Russia will pay” project with the support of the Office of the President of Ukraine and the Ministries of Economy, Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories and Infrastructure.
According to the report, the direct losses for the Ukrainian economy as a result of the damage caused to infrastructure so far in the war amount to almost 100,000 million dollars.
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Because of the war, 38.6 million square meters of housing have been destroyed or damaged, with a total value of 33.9 billion dollars. In the last week, total losses from destruction and damage to businesses also increased by 207 million dollars; since the beginning of the war, at least 216 plants, factories and businesses have suffered $10.6 billion worth of damage.
In addition, in the last week 75 educational centers were damaged or destroyed and since the beginning of the war this figure rises to a total of 1,067, for a value of 1,500 million dollars.
The report further adds that since the start of the war, at least twelve civilian airports, 295 bridges and overpasses, 591 nurseries, 574 health facilities, 108 religious and 179 cultural buildings, 169 warehouses and 19 shopping centers have been damaged, have been destroyed or have been seized.
Indirect losses include the decline in GDP, the cessation of investment, the exodus of labor and additional spending on defense and social assistance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 35% collapse of Ukrainian GDP this year, while Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko expects a 45-50% drop on his side.
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According to the minister, revenue from customs tariffs fell by 70% and tax revenues between “25 and 30%”, exports and imports were practically halved and inflation exceeded 16% year-on-year in April.The picture is critical considering that to maintain the country’s economy, kyiv estimates that it needs 5 billion dollars a month.
And the impact on the Russian economy?
The Russians are not far behind. The Russian economy will contract by 7.8% in 2022, below the predictions of the Central Bank (8-10%), according to the Ministry of Economy, due to the sanctions for the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
The contraction predictions coincide with the biggest decline in the Russian economy -7.8% in 2009- since President Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000.
The Russian economy has already felt the effects of unprecedented Western sanctions due to the Russian military campaign in Ukraine in the first quarter, in which GDP grew by only 1.6%.
The lowest point is expected to be the third quarter, after which the recovery will begin, which will not be noticeable in the lives of Russians until the second half of 2023.
Inflation will rise to 17.5% by the end of this year, capital investments will fall by 19.4%, real incomes will fall by 6.8% and unemployment will rise to 6.7%.
Has the world also felt the impact?
Yes. The war has fully impacted the world economy and its consequences are being felt all over the planetmainly due to the increase in the prices of energy, raw materials and agricultural products in all world markets.
In a report published this Monday to coincide with the opening of the Davos forum, the NGO Oxfam predicts that 263 million people will fall into extreme poverty this year, that is, one million every 33 hours.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and Ukraine, the fifth, and together, according to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), they supply 14% of wheat and more than a third of world exports. of cereals.
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That is why the FAO has warned that disruptions to the supply chain and logistics of grain production in those two countries created by what Russia calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine will have major repercussions for global food security.
The UN also concludes that the war in Ukraine is slowing down the fragile economic recovery that the world had begun after the covid-19 crisis, lowering the global growth forecast for this year from 4% to 3.1%.
Is there hope about the end of the war?
The war seems long. In fact, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said on Monday that “the next few weeks of the war will be difficult,” and pointed out that the toughest fight is in Donbas, the east of the country.
“The next few weeks of the war will be difficult. And we must be aware of that. However, we have no alternative but to fight” Zelensky said in his usual late-night speech.
After failing in their initial goal of capturing kyiv, Moscow’s forces are now focused on securing and expanding their military gains in the Donbass region and on Ukraine’s southern coast.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense indicated on Monday that Russia’s “active hostilities” had advanced towards the city of Severodonetsk, in the east, and that heavy fighting was also taking place in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
“Popasna [cerca de Severodonetsk]Bakhmut, Mariupol: Russia is simply destroying the territory with artillery and aircraft and then the troops [rusas] come in,” the ministry’s spokesman, Oleksander Motuzyanyk, told reporters.
Lugansk Governor Sergiy Gaidai assured that Russia had sent thousands of troops to occupy this Donbas region and that it was launching a massive attack on Severodonetsk.
In some areas taken over by the Russians, Moscow tries to reinforce its authority. In Kherson, for example, the first major city to fall, the local administration announced the introduction of the ruble as official currency alongside the Ukrainian hryvnia.
Although the two warring parties had started talks, the dialogue did not prosper despite several meetings in Turkey.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING*
*With information from EFE and AFP
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