Russia launched a large-scale military aggression against Ukraine on Thursday. These are the main questions and answers of a conflict with devastating potential, not only for the Ukrainian population, but also for the world order.
What is Vladimir Putin looking for?
The Kremlin has cited various motivations to justify the attack. He has long argued that the Ukrainian government was planning to retake the breakaway regions of Donbas by force and that the local population was threatened with “genocide”. There is no proof of the former, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the latter “ridiculous” at the recent Munich Security Conference. In broader terms, Moscow denounces that Ukraine is on its way to becoming a major base for Western weapons near its borders. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and has received only small arms supplies as the Russian threat has intensified. To understand Russian aggression, however, it is essential to look at other factors that the president, Vladimir Putin, does not mention: his desire to stop the integration of Ukraine into the Western orbit and the full development of its democracy – which could constitute a dangerous example in view of the oppressed Russian citizenry under his authoritarian regime. Ukraine is an essential part of the Russian imperial recovery project that Putin is championing through the reestablishment of a zone of influence on the perimeter of the former Soviet Union in which, in his opinion, neither the West nor, de facto, local citizens should enter they should be free to choose their destination if it does not match their plans.
What is the balance of military forces in Russia and Ukraine?
The imbalance is huge. The Russian Armed Forces suffered a prolonged period of deterioration after the collapse of the USSR. But Vladimir Putin has led a huge effort to modernize its capabilities, with significant investments. The superiority is overwhelming in all domains, land, sea, air, cyber and space. Russia officially invested some 62,000 million dollars (55,668 million euros) in military spending in 2021, according to the report The Military Balance from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Ukraine’s spending did not reach 5 billion dollars. Russia also has a nuclear arsenal comparable to that of the United States. The combat experiences in the operations in Georgia (2008, and in which the Russian high command confirmed the serious deficiencies of its forces), Ukraine (2014) and Syria (2015) have allowed great progress in the development of operational capacity. Ukraine, for its part, has been improving its Armed Forces which, in 2014, were seriously disorganized and lacking in means. Western military trainers have helped in that process, and the country has received some types of weaponry that may be useful in defending against the invasion, such as Turkish-made armed drones and Javelin anti-tank missiles. But it is unlikely that he will be able to put up effective resistance. Another thing is a guerrilla war after the initial phase of aggression.
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Is the attack the prelude to an occupation?
President Putin has said that he does not intend to occupy the neighboring country, but to demilitarize it. This statement must be seen in a context in which Russian leaders have repeatedly claimed that the threat of invasion denounced by Western countries was pure paranoia. At the moment it is a broad attack, with entry into Ukrainian territory from different points and with bombings at multiple points of it. The attempt to extend the territory of the Donbas separatists to coincide with the administrative delimitation of the region seems likely. There are also reasons to believe that Russia could seek to establish a corridor between Donbas and Crimea, and even between Crimea and Odessa, a strategically important port city.
Will the West intervene militarily on Ukraine’s behalf?
Not in terms of deploying forces to fight Russia. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is therefore not covered by the Alliance’s mutual defense clause. US President Joe Biden has long made it clear that he would not send forces to fight in Ukraine. Another thing is the increase in arms supplies to the former Soviet republic, so far of little intensity. Some allies, like Germany, are not for the job, but others are, like the United States or the United Kingdom. The French government issued statements on Thursday suggesting it might be willing. The problem is that the delivery of complex weapons systems is not a quick affair, and neither is training for their effective use. Meanwhile, on the ground, things could evolve very quickly.
What sanctions will the West impose?
The allies have made it clear that they will be forceful in the response, which will be of sufficient intensity to harm Russia’s future prosperity, according to some Western leaders. There are several courses of action. One, financial, with the aim of cutting off the access of Russian banking entities to the capital markets; another, commercial, blocking exports of cutting-edge technology. A third is personal sanctions against high representatives of the Russian regime, such as those that have already occurred after Moscow recognized the independence of the separatist territories of Donbas. 70% of Russian banks and state-owned companies will be subject to sanctions, as agreed by the European Council. Crude oil and airline exports will prevent Russian industry from improving its assets. In another section, Germany has announced the suspension of the authorization process for the start-up of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a project that has already been completed but has not been activated and that would double Russia’s direct supply to Germany, bypassing the countries of Eastern Europe —annulling well, the transit commissions for example for Ukraine and the geopolitical advantages of the case—.
How can Russia respond?
The most important weapon at the Kremlin’s disposal against the EU is gas supply. According to data provided by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at the Munich Security Conference, 24% of the total energy mix in the EU corresponds to gas, 90% of which is imported. Russia supplies 40%. Faced with a wave of Western sanctions, Moscow can play with gas, both with supply disruptions and an abrupt cutoff. Von der Leyen announced that the EU is prepared to resist the abrupt cutoff scenario thanks to the contingency plans made to increase imports of liquefied natural gas. Russia has other tools to respond, playing with exports of products such as wheat — whose price is already rising in the market, since Ukraine is also a large producer — or titanium. The West, especially Europe, may suffer, among other things, from the loss of turnover of exporting companies. But there is no doubt that Russia, a small, fragile and monoculture economy, will suffer more in the medium and long term. In the short term, the Kremlin has significant emergency funds that will allow it to soften the blow.
What international support does Russia have?
The Russian invasion has provoked a wide wave of condemnation, not only from Western countries. The UN secretary general urged President Putin to withdraw troops from him. Russia hopes that the increasingly close relationship with China, enshrined earlier this month in an important joint statement outlining a common vision for a new world order, will give it oxygen in this situation. How far Beijing is willing to go remains to be seen. Apart from the general convergence, regarding the invasion, the Asian power has maintained an ambiguous position, by which it has reaffirmed its attachment to the concept of territorial integrity of the countries, but has also underlined the weight of Russian concerns for its security. . Beijing has avoided this Thursday qualifying what happened as an invasion. In any case, it is likely that China could be an economic-technological alternative for Russia in the face of the isolation it will suffer from the West.
What is at stake beyond Ukraine?
Of course, the priority is the lives of civilians facing the prospect of a terrible conflict. But beyond that, the definition of the world order of the 21st century is at stake. Russia and China seek a readjustment. The High Representative for European Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, has defined the pulse as the alternative between a multilateral order supported by organizations and international law, with the aspiration to affirm human rights in a full sense and a multipolar one, with zones of influence, and a relativistic view of human rights. The Russian aggression against Ukraine is the central playing field in this global pulse.
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