War in Ukraine, the internal pain of the two rivals Biden and Putin
What if they both end up defeated? Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin are not experiencing the war in Ukraine in a positive way. Indeed, the dynamics of what is happening risks igniting, or has already ignited, internal opposition. Clearly in one case, that of the United States, it is a question of political opposition in a democratic system. While in the other case there is talk of more or less disjointed opponents who could however somehow pinch the monolith that is at the moment Putin’s system of power in the Kremlin.
Let’s start with the United States, where the Republicans have been blowing the fire for days or weeks, openly criticizing the Democratic president’s approach to the Russian invasion and pre-invasion. According to Donald Trump’s party, Biden is too weak, unable to make words follow deeds, stuck in a policy of appeasement towards Moscow. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell said Putin would not have felt entitled to deploy 150,000 troops on the Ukrainian border “if we hadn’t hastily withdrawn from Afghanistan.”
Republicans against Biden: “Too weak with Putin”
A thesis partly followed by Giorgia Meloni, moreover, who speaking at the CPAC, the convention of American conservatives underway in Florida, fired at Biden: “Of course, as many of you will agree, no one can take it from my head that without the scandalous withdrawal of troops from Kabul yesterday, we would not have never seen the tragic siege of Kiev today. And, of course, no one would be preparing to see Taiwan occupied tomorrow, “adds Meloni. Where by the way, Taiwanthe former secretary of state and candidate for the 2024 elections arrives in the coming days Mike Pompeo. Predictably it will turn on the spirits on China, Taipei hopes not also on Biden.
And again, returning to the Republican exponents: “Unfortunately, the president has consistently chosen appeasement and his harsh words towards Russia have never been followed by facts”, Republican leaders in the House, Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise and Elise Stefanik said. Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo went so far as to praise Putin’s intelligence and wisdom in the days before the invasion, as opposed to Biden’s recklessness and weakness.
War in Ukraine, thousands of arrests at anti-invasion protests in Russia
But also pay attention to what is happening in Russia, where a population often considered passive, is demonstrating that it does not accept Putin’s moves as a whole. In fact, 3,052 people have been arrested in the last three days in Russia for participating in protests against the invasion of Ukraineas announced by the independent organization Ovd-Info, specifying that only on Saturday at least 467 people ended up in handcuffs in 34 cities.
Some Russians will welcome Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but a repeat of the popularity boost the Kremlin enjoyed following its annexation of Crimea seems unlikely. Public opinion polls show that the Russian public does not share Putin’s view that Ukraine is not a “real country”. Surveys conducted over the past decade consistently indicate that about 80% of Russians recognize Ukraine as an independent state, and that only about 20% prefer some form of unification. How Russians will respond to violence directed against friends, acquaintances and family in Ukraine is difficult to predict.
War in Ukraine, the map of Putin’s opponents
A long war and a difficult occupation of Ukraine could drain public support for the Kremlin. Even the entrepreneurs begin to make a noise, captained as always by Alexei Kudrin, Minister of Finance from 2000 to 2011 who calls for looser ties for companies and less tensions with the West. But there are many Russian characters who have taken sides against the war. In recent days, almost ignored by the Western media, as well 4000 Russian intellectuals and artists they bravely signed an appeal against the president’s invasion.
Among those who openly oppose the war also the tennis player Daniil Medvedev and the dissident chess champion Garry Kasparov. Not to mention the former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. The war in Ukraine could prove to be a boomerang for Putin.
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