kyiv fears that the West is losing interest in the conflict after four months, the entrenched crisis in the Donbas and the general rise in prices
‘Tensions rise in the East’; ‘Putin invades Ukraine’; ‘Moscow bombs the Ukrainian capital’; ‘Thousands of civilians die after a Russian air attack’. Headlines like these have filled the news and the front pages of newspapers since last February 24, when the Kremlin launched a full-scale war in its neighboring country. Nothing compared to the continuous clashes that have taken place in the Donbass region since eight years earlier, when Moscow encouraged the pro-Russian uprising after annexing the Crimean peninsula. The invasion has been part of everyday life in Western nations since February but, after four months, interest seems to wane.
The space that the conflict occupies in the media and in international social debate is still very important, enormous even in line with the immense human tragedy that it means, but it does not appear to be the same shock that triggered the siege of kyiv, the first days mass exodus of refugees or the discovery of the massacres and torture of Bucha. Europeans, according to surveys, are beginning to focus more on their daily concerns and are especially hurt by the general rise in the cost of living.
The greatest impact of the war occurs in Ukraine itself, with the loss of thousands of lives, almost seven million exiles and devastated cities whose restoration will cost 600,000 million euros. But the West also feels the indirect consequences, above all with skyrocketing food or fuel prices, which the rulers justify for the Ukrainian crisis.
The loss of interest is one of the biggest fears of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. “Our task is that the world does not get tired of war,” he warned at the end of last May before the World Economic Forum in Davos. A complicated task, especially now that the conflict has almost returned to its point of origin: the Donbas, where clashes between pro-Russians and Ukrainians have been continuous since 2014.
Volodymyr Zelensky
“If in the capital, which was blocked, they forget what happened very quickly, the others will do so sooner”
But, unlike the impact of the invasion since the end of February, the war of the last eight years in the border region with Russia was hardly noticed in the international community. And that caused 15,000 deaths. The difference was that then they were fighting for 5% of the territory of Ukraine and now it is about the resistance of a country that has been subjugated and razed without mercy. A fight for justice and democracy, in the words of leaders such as the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, or the EU leader, Ursula Von der Leyen.
Some analysts believe that this latest twist in the war, concentrated in the Donbás, could lead to it being perceived again by part of society as an internal and political conflict that requires urgent dialogue. According to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, conducted by the consultancy YouGov and the research firm Datapraxis, “European public opinion is changing.” While world economies are still recovering from the pandemic, the Eastern war has hit them hard.
great divide
The great divide among the 8,000 people in ten countries (Poland, Romania, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) who have been asked about the current paradigm of war is among those who want end the armed conflict as soon as possible and those who prefer Ukraine to continue fighting until Russia is defeated. An objective that seems increasingly utopian in view of the territorial loss suffered by the Ukrainian Army. In general, Europeans are not in doubt about which side to be on. They want Ukraine to prevail and are willing to help the country. However, they want everything to end soon.
35% of those surveyed favor an end to the war as soon as possible, even if it means that Ukraine has to make concessions. 25%, for their part, maintain that punishing Moscow and restoring the territorial integrity of the invaded country should take precedence over demands for peace. Of the first group, moreover, 50% think that their government devotes too much attention to the conflict. In the case of the second group, 52% assure that they have been given a normal interest, compared to 38% who affirm that it has been too much. Other voters think that the world community pays too much attention to the Ukrainian crisis.
Geographically, the preference for ending the conflict as soon as possible is strongest in Italy (52%) and Germany (49%). They are also two of the countries where citizens publicly show a greater weariness due to inflation. The data reflected in this report highlights that “solidarity fatigue” could soon emerge as well. In Poland and Romania -two of the countries closest to the territory in conflict- more than 50% of those surveyed affirm that their governments have focused too much on the conflict at the expense of other pressing problems in each nation.
This is proof that “unity in Europe is diminishing a bit with the Russian invasion. There is this kind of fatigue and even some countries are less and less willing to continue with sanctions,” says Matteo Villa, an analyst at the ISPI think tank in Milan.
Faced with this situation, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared this week that it is essential to maintain support for kyiv after four months of fighting. The United Kingdom is one of the countries that most strongly support Ukraine and has in fact become the European nation that has made the largest contributions in arms and capital. “The concern we have is that a little bit of Ukraine fatigue is starting to show up around the world,” the Conservative leader said, adding that “it’s very important to show that we’re with them for the long haul.”
surveys
The number of Europeans in favor of negotiating the end of the conflict soon
His philosophy is generally shared by US President Joe Biden, although various polls indicate that half of Americans prefer to seek a quick solution to the war crisis and are reluctant to continue the war of attrition with Russia. indefinitely. The ‘online’ space that Ukraine occupies has also decreased. According to the Axios website, interactions on social networks related to the invasion have dropped considerably, from 109 million to 4.8 in just two months.
Strategy
Although he worries that people will “get fed up” and “look for something new”, Zelensky knows that it is inevitable. “There will be a decrease in interest in war because there are many different problems in the world besides Ukraine,” says the Ukrainian president, before noting that it is necessary to think carefully about the next strategy so that “this daily marathon continues.” Among the options is to increase his public appearances, even if they are through videoconferences and recorded speeches that are distributed in forums and parliaments around the world. This very next week Zelensky will hold a telematic meeting with the NATO leaders meeting in Madrid.
The Ukrainian leader is also concerned about the internal feeling of those who believe in his country that the confrontation with Russia is far from over. A few days ago, he addressed his own fellow citizens and the territorial chiefs to urge them all to work in defense of Ukraine and lamented that the distant nuclei of the Donbas, and that now live in peace, are already thinking about reconstruction and recovering normality soon as possible. “I don’t want to be critical, but the situation exists. And if in our capital, kyiv, which used to be occupied and blocked, people forget very quickly because they want to continue living”, in the rest of the world “everything will be forgotten more quickly”.
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