At first, investors bought Donald Trump’s return to the White House as a positive element for markets. However, the new president of the United States seems to seek to be enmity with some of the world’s main powers and investors are choosing to flee Wall Street and relocate their investments in other areas, such as Europe. While the old continent bags manage to endure the bearish ward puddleWall Street suffers claws of red In the year. Although every negative part also involves a positive part. In the case of the US market, these last falls have caused both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 to abandon the critical area: The premium to which they are acquired would no longer allow to speak of bubble territory.
The latest corrections have caused Wall Street to leave the bubble territory (considered as quoting with a 20% premium on the reversal to the average), which occupied one of the main concerns of both investors and experts at the end of 2024. However, Wall Street continues to be purchased at high prices. Currently, the S&P 500 is bought in 2025 with A 15% premium with respect to the medium historical benefit multiplier18 times and quote a per (times the benefit is collected in the price of the action) of 20.7 times.
In the case of the selective of technology, The Nasdaq 100 has reduced the premium with which his historical average (23 times) was bought with respect at 7.3%, and currently places its benefit multiplier by 2025 at 24.6 times.
On this side of the puddle, and even after the strong advance that accumulates in 2025, Stoxx 600 is still bought with discount on its historical average, 6%by quoting a Per 14.54 times on the expected benefits by 2025.
“While Europe is aimed at a higher public spending, in the United States the narrative seems to go in the opposite direction, with fiscal restriction signs. This has led to an adjustment in capital allocations, where US actions begin to act as a source of liquidity for investments in historically undervalued markets such as Europe and China. Although we are still far from a structural change in the weights of global portfolios, the trend is clear: the absolute dominance of the US market is no longer unquestionable, “he emphasizes Javier Molina, senior market analyst for Etoro.
Also in this sense they point out from Citi and HSBC, which have begun to assess the position in the North American market as neutral. From Citi they warn that “The hegemony of US actions is in pause“And from HSBC they see” better opportunities in other places for now. “
On February 19, both indices marked historical maximums in the 22,175 points in the case of the technological index and 6,144 points in the S&P 500 and, from that roof, they began a descending path that has led them to lose more than 12% and almost 9% of their value respectively. Only in the few seven days that accumulates March, the descents suppose up to seven and almost six points of those corrections. If the month is closed right now, that would be for both indices its worst monthly balance since December 2022.
These last collapses have led both Wall Street indices to register Red numbers In the year: the S&P 500 yields 4.5% since the beginning of the year and the Nasdaq 100 extends its decrease to 7.5% from the beginning of January.
“The tariff advertisements advance at vertigo speed. President Trump applied them to China (twice!) And he imposed several to Canada and Mexico that later adjusted. He also announced reciprocal tariffs to the rest of the world, from April. The amounts seem discouraging, and the markets have responded with fear, uncertainty and dread. The level of tariffs sounds terrifying, but they are small compared to the size of the US economyWe will carry out the volatility of the stock market will end up giving way to a positive movement in the markets, “says Damian McIntyre, portfolio manager and senior quantitative analyst at Federated Hermes.
Both the Per of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 is still an elevated multiple, but, even with all the fluctuations of the market, experts continue to forecast a new historical harvest of benefits for the two indices. In the case of the main Wall Street index, analysts expect a BPA (benefit per action) of $ 270.78 per sharewhich would mean an increase of up to 14% compared to the figure of 2024, of $ 236.95.
For its part, the technology, the sector that has concentrated in its results accounts all the eyes, would present earnings per share of $ 788.51which would mean an improvement of up to 22% with the data of 2024, of $ 645.66 per share.
The truth is that this season of results has already realized that, at the operational level, the growing path continues and (in the absence of five companies to closed this era of balances), on average, the companies of the S&P 500 have broken up to 7% the estimates of the market for the whole of 2024. In the case of the Nasdaq 100, that percentage of surprise has been located at 6%.
The near future
What will be the evolution of American bags is the great unknown that flies the market. “The market is likely to remain very erratic in the short term, marked by the concern about the geostrategic situation (and the effect of tariff policy on future growth, inflation figures and, eventually, in business benefits),” says the Bankinter analysis team.
On a technical level, the Nasdaq 100 is increasingly closest to the purchase zone marked from Ecotrader by the technical advisor, Joan Cabrero. The expert places the level that would allow to acquire American technology at LSO 18,700-19,000 points, to which The selective still has an additional 3%drop.
Closer is still The S&P 500whose purchase zone is located at 5,520 points, according to the experts, of which It only separates a setback of less than 1%. “It is valid to open positions at the mentioned levels, but being clear that the market should respect the key supports. If the falls go further and both indices perform their respective levels, the technical panorama would become more complex and potentially bassist,” says Cabrero.
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