The far-right party is destined to be decisive after the collapse of Ciudadanos and the blurred future of Podemos
The political map drawn six years ago by the elections that ended bipartisanship has varied significantly during this time. With Ciudadanos in free fall and with the future of Podemos more in the air than ever, Vox seems destined to be the linchpin of the next general elections whenever they happen.
The crucial role that liberals and morados have played since 2015 will be played by the formation led by Santiago Abascal, a key piece on the political board since the 2019 electoral repetition, which made him the third political force in Congress. Since then, his influence has been undeniable. Erected as the scourge of the coalition government, it has even managed to break Pedro Sánchez’s health strategy during the coronavirus crisis with the two states of alarm declared unconstitutional. And it has also complicated the life of a Pablo Casado who has modulated his position with Abascal’s since his irruption in the autonomous regions of Andalusia in 2018. Before, Vox had spent four years without achieving parliamentarians anywhere.
A complicated relationship the latter, above all, due to the certainty that both have that at some point they will need to strengthen ties – as is already the case in Madrid or Andalusia – if they want to evict Pedro Sánchez de la Moncloa. “Vox is the great promise of the alliance that the right can establish to govern in the future,” says Ángel Valencia, professor of Political Science and Administration at the University of Malaga.
The transformation of the Spanish political map
PP and PSOE have not managed to regain their hegemony since the 2015 elections
CIU 16 (4.18%), UI 11 (6.92%),
Amaiur 7 (1.37%), UPyD 5 (4.7%),
PNV 5 (1.33%), Esquerra 3 (1.06%),
BNG 2 (0.76%), DC 2 (0.59%),
You compromise 1 (0.52%), FAC one
(0.41%) and GBAI 1 (0.17%)
ERC 9 (2.39%), DL 8 (2.25%),
PNV 6 (1.2%), Popular Unity in
Common 2 (3.67%), EH Bildu two
(0.87%) and CCa-PNC 1 (0.33%)
ERC 13 (3.64%), Cs 10 (6.86%),
JxCAT 8 (2.21%), PNV 6 (1.58%),
EH Bildu 5 (1.15%), More Country 3
(2.33%), CUP 2 (1.03%),
CCa-PNC-NC 2 (0.52%), PRC one
(0.29%), BNG 1 (0.50%) and
Teruel exists 1 (0.08%)
Source: Congress of Deputies.
The transformation of the Spanish political map
PP and PSOE have not managed to regain their hegemony since the 2015 elections
CIU 16 (4.18%)
UI 11 (6.92%)
Amaiur 7 (1.37%)
UPyD 5 (4.7%)
PNV 5 (1.33%)
Esquerra 3 (1.06%)
BNG 2 (0.76%)
DC 2 (0.59%)
You compromise 1 (0.52%)
FAC 1 (0.41%)
GBAI 1 (0.17%)
ERC 9 (2.39%)
DL 8 (2.25%)
PNV 6 (1.2%)
Popular Unity in
Common 2 (3.67%)
EH Bildu 2 (0.87%)
CCa-PNC 1 (0.33%)
ERC 13 (3.64%)
Cs 10 (6.86%)
JxCAT 8 (2.21%)
PNV 6 (1.58%),
EH Bildu 5 (1.15%)
More Country 3 (2.33%)
CUP 2 (1.03%)
CCa-PNC-NC 2 (0.52%)
PRC 1 (0.29%)
BNG 1 (0.50%)
Teruel exists 1 (0.08%)
Source: Congress of Deputies.
Precisely, Vox did not obtain a single deputy in the 2015 elections, which ended the hegemony of the PP and PSOE – snatching 5.4 million votes from them – and in which Podemos and Ciudadanos took all the attention. Both formations emerged as power alternatives after the configuration of a new political space where corruption and democratic regeneration, unlike today, were the central axes of the debate.
Ciudadanos could have governed with the PSOE after the 58 deputies that he added in April 2019, his best result, but Albert Rivera did not want to and fell sharply in the electoral repetition of 10-N. Podemos, for its part, has never obtained better results than those harvested in 2015, when it opened in Congress with 69 deputies. Although, curiously, it was those of 2019, with its worst result, which made it part of the first coalition government in the recent history of Spain.
The set of platforms of Empty Spain or the project – still in the air – of Yolanda Díaz are emerging as other actors that may be decisive when shaping future majorities in the lower house. “A regionalist but nationally articulated movement could further break the spectrum of bipartisanship,” says Ernesto Pascual, a collaborating professor of Political Science Studies at the Open University of Catalonia, referring to the associations that will follow in the wake of Teruel Existe and that they can continue to undermine the supports of the two great parties.
The case of the second vice president of the Government, meanwhile, remains unknown. An act in November together with other leaders of the left such as Ada Colau, Mónica Oltra or Fatima Hamed Hossain and the statement that “he does not want to be to the left of the PSOE” because he is “a very small and marginal corner” are the only clues that has given so far. However, Podemos, of which Díaz is not part – he is a member of the PCE – seems to have surrendered to the evidence that his electoral cartel is the best option to “reinvent his political project.” Something that happens, according to Valencia, for “being close to the vice president.”
Polarization
The current situation of the protagonists of what was baptized as the new policy is so far from that of then that they do not even have the same leaders. Although the ephemeral passage of Albert Rivera and Pablo Iglesias is not a sign that bipartisanship can return. «In Europe the trend is the opposite. There is more polarization. The dichotomy between rural and urban, or the young vote, have returned stronger than ever, “says Pascual, who also believes that PP and PSOE will continue to be the majority in the Executives.
“It is normal for those who have held them for 40 years to retain these central positions, even if new parties emerge,” he asserts. “If there was someone who could be the majority in a coalition, it was Citizens”, ditch the professor of Political Science, who believes that the orange formation lost a golden opportunity to occupy a predominant position in the system “by listing to the right” .
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