PoderData shows that 90% of those who intend to vote for one of the 2 candidates say they are sure they will not change their mind
The election for the presidential succession in Brazil is increasingly crystallized. Search PowerDate held from June 5th to 7th, 2022 shows that those who have already chosen a pre-candidate and do not intend to change their vote until October grew to 82%. The data measured in this round is 9 percentage points higher than that recorded 3 months earlier. Those who can still change their choice are only 11%. In April, 18% had made this statement. There are still 7% who do not know whether or not they have decided to vote – compared to 9% in the last study.
Together, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (43%) and Jair Bolsonaro (35%) concentrate 78% of voting intentions, according to the same survey round. Of those voters, 90% of both pre-candidates say they are fully decided on the choice and will vote “absolutely” in the chosen name.
Among those who chose Ciro Gomes (6%), from the PDT, which is in 3rd place in the general scenario, 32% admit the possibility of voting for another name in October. Those who are determined to choose this stratum are 64%.
Of the 5% who intend to nullify the vote or vote blank, 68% are fully decided on that position. Another 28% can still migrate to some pre-candidate.
O PowerDate asked the interviewees – if they are sure they will vote for the candidate they choose today or if they can still change their mind and choose another candidate – right after questioning them about their voting intention, considering the scenario with all the names.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 309 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. Registration with the TSE: BR-01975/2022.
To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, more than 100,000 calls are needed until the interviewees are found who faithfully represent the population as a whole. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
1ST SHIFT SCENARIO
Squid (PT) kept the same 43% of voting intention as 15 days ago. Bolsonaro (PL) had 35%, identical score to two weeks earlier as well. The distance between the 2 leaders is 8 points.
After João Doria (PSDB) to give up competing for the Palácio do Planalto, the only representative of the so-called 3rd way became the Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) – that’s why the senator was considered in the table above. She has had extensive media exposure in the past 15 days. The effect was nil. Tebet had 2% in the previous study of PowerDate. Now it has 1%.
Ciro Gomes (PDT) remains at a level close to that of previous surveys: it has 6%. André Janones (Forward) marks 2%. Only 2 other candidates scored: Jose Maria Eymael (DC) and Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union). The other microcandidates did not have enough mentions to reach 1%. There are still 5% who say they intend to vote blank or null. And 5% say they are undecided.
POWERDATA
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POWERDATACAST
O Power 360 it’s the PowerDate publish every 15 days the PowerDataCast, dedicated exclusively to the debate of electoral and public opinion polls. The last episode had the participation of journalist and communication consultant Thomas Traumann and political scientist and coordinator of the PowerDate, Rodolfo Costa Pinto.
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METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was performed from 5 to 7 dand June 2022. 3,000 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 309 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds using the device’s keyboard. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Due to this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results for some questions differs from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossing of variables can happen due to occurrences of non-response. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power 360 Journalism. The research is registered with the TSE under number BR-01975/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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