We Europeans misdiagnose Putin: a radical minority (right or left) underestimates his malice; and a moderate majority overestimates his power. When, in reality, the Russian leader is a serious problem, but not because he feels strong in the face of a divided West, but on the contrary: he is weaker than ever. He can no longer cling to the Kremlin throne thanks to economic performance. During its golden years, things “worked” compared to the chaos that reigned in Russia after the collapse of communism. Similarly, the Chinese ambassador’s warnings to the US about a possible military conflict over Taiwan are not a sign of the strength of the Chinese regime, but of its sudden exhaustion: the miraculous model of growth based on exports and construction today casts worrying shadows.
In the 21st century, with national borders solidified across the planet, autocrats only resort to external military aggression in desperation. Precisely because they are not accountable to their electorate, they are more at risk than democratic presidents. Deep economic or military crises lead to changes of government in democracies, but in dictatorships, they drag down the entire regime, including the life of the tyrant and his family. We think that authoritarian rulers are bold and democrats are skittish, but it’s the other way around. If things get ugly, Macron, Biden or Scholz will play the role; Putin or Xi Jinping, the neck. A democratic leader looks out for his citizens like a man in love with his mistress: the worst thing that can happen to him is that they leave him. An overbearing one is an alpha chimpanzee, constantly fearful of being killed by a beta male.
Putin barks a lot, because that is how he keeps his population entertained, but he bites little, because he would be the first victim of a war failure. His goal is not to restore national glory and rebuild the tsarist-soviet empire, but to survive in the Kremlin as long as possible and extract as many resources for himself and his relatives. So the real enemy of him is not the NATO tanks on distant borders, but the barricades in Red Square.
With great power, such as that amassed by Putin or Xi Jinping, does not always carry great responsibility, but it always carries great fear. @VictorLapuente
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