Virologist Drosten expresses “bad fears” for summer 2021 – a clear difference to 2020 possible

Berlin – The current trend of Corona numbers in Germany gives cautious reason for hope. It seems they do Lockdown measures are slowly paying off a little. In particular, the vaccination has started and the warmer weather from spring onwards makes many people hopeful that the numbers will continue to decline.

So everything will be “normal” again from spring? After all, the number of new infections in summer 2020 was also relatively low. Christian Drosten from the Berlin Charité, the euphoria slows down. The virologist, who also belonged to the panel of experts that the Prime Minister and Chancellor Angela Merkel advised before their meeting on Tuesday, is looking at the warmer season with great concern opposite.

Corona in Germany: 100,000 cases per day in summer? Christian Drosten has “bad fears”

In an interview with the mirror said Drosten about the so-called “Zero Covid Strategy”. This provides for the nine infections to be reduced to zero as possible. For Drosten this would be an absolutely worthwhile goal. “Mainly because I have serious fears about what will otherwise happen in spring and summer,” he says.

His great concern has also been with the Vaccination campaign to do. Drosten’s fear: As soon as a large part of the elderly and the risk group are vaccinated, “there will be enormous economic, social, political and perhaps also legal pressure to end the corona measures”. Then, within a very short time, significantly more people would be infected with the virus than you can currently imagine, he says. “Then we no longer have case numbers of 20,000 or 30,000, but in the worst case 100,000 per day,” he paints a real one Horror scenario, as well as calf reported.

In this case, it is true that younger people, who are known to be less seriously ill with the virus, would be infected. Full intensive care units and a high death rate would still be inevitable. “We could cushion this scenario a little if we now push the numbers down very deep,” explains Drosten.

Christian Drosten sees a “unique opportunity” to limit virus mutation in Germany

So there is no hope of lower case numbers from the summer onwards, like last year? “I don’t think so,” says Drosten im mirror-Conversation. He think that summer last year was so mild, as the number of infections with the corona virus in Germany in the spring before below a critical threshold stayed. In the meantime, however, this is no longer the case. “I’m afraid it will now be more like Spain, where the number of cases rose again quickly in the summer after the lockdown was over, although it was very hot,” said Drosten.

It is therefore essential for the virologist that the R value is further reduced. It is a good thing that the value in Germany is now below 1 again. Drosten hopes, however, that the new one decided on Tuesday Tightening of the lockdown could come to a value of less than 0.7. Then there would not only be hope for easing. Also in the fight against the spread of the dangerous Corona mutation B.1.1.7, which has meanwhile arrived in Germany, would give yourself a head start. “I believe that now there is still the unique opportunity to prevent the spread of this variant in our country or at least to slow it down considerably,” says Drosten, encouraging him on this point.

Christian Drosten on new lockdown measures: criticism of home office regulation

It remains to be seen whether the tightening will be enough. In any case, for Drosten it is clear that the point Home office “Certainly more” could have done. He would also like to see greater support for socially disadvantaged groups. According to Drosten, the virus often spreads faster there, as many people sometimes live in cramped conditions or work in jobs in which home office cannot be easily implemented. “I think there is still a lot that can be done there,” says the virologist. (han)

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