The slow dialogue with the opposition, the recent defeat in the Barinas elections, the pressure from the International Criminal Court demanding answers to the crimes against humanity that occurred under its mandate and even the growing tension between Russia and the US have the government of Nicolás Maduro on high alert and that seems to be a litmus test to show how weak or strong he is before his own Chavista ranks.
This 2022 seems to appear with complications for Mature on account of, among others, border, weapons and geopolitical issues. This without neglecting economic and social aspects within a country that remains behind in the midst of the pandemic.
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The recent defeat in the home state of Hugo Chavez, Barinas, has been a hard blow for the Venezuelan regime, although in terms of communication it is not demonstrated or attempts to make up. The truth is this episode that has brought a difference that comes up again: the chavismo vs madurismo.
For the Venezuelan political scientist Walter Molina There is a division that is noteworthy within the Bolivarian government and it was made clear in the Barinas elections. “Right now we could talk about madurismo and chavismo as two sides of the same coin, but with clear differences,” says the analyst.
This is not the first time these two wings of power have been mentioned. Already in the primary United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), in mid-2021, to elect the candidates for the regional elections, the breaks within the movement were evident.
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Nicolás Maduro himself drew the attention of the militancy on several occasions on this aspect. In addition, in the same “cradle of the revolution” (Barinas) public fights were the order of the day between opposing groups that defended the continuity of the Chávez family, but with different representatives.
Faced with this, Molina believes that Maduro’s strength will depend on keeping his coalition united, that is, those who are loyal to that madurismo, “at least in order not to lose power and all that that could mean.”
The three r’
In the presentation of his report and annual account, the ruler launched what he called the three “R”, giving them the meaning of “resistance, rebirth and revolution” with a view to a government plan for the period 2022-2030. According to the president, the direction of this proposal is to “resist the blockade” imposed by USA, “reborn from the spirit of the country” and “revolutionize everything to make it better.”
With this proposal, a Maduro is seen to be increasingly closer to his loyalists, such as the president of the National Assembly elected in 2020, Jorge Rodríguez, and the vice president of the Republic, Delcy Rodriguez. While the one closest to the Chávez family, Jorge Arreaza, was defeated in Barinas and for the time being displaced from any position in the ministerial train.
Now, externally, the Venezuelan regime begins to have more pressure. The ICC has given a period of three months for the Maduro administration to present the progress on the crimes against humanity contemplated in the “Venezuela I” file, but, as Delsa Solórzano, president of the Justice and Peace Commission of the parliament chaired by Juan Guaidó, it is not a concession that the court has made, but on the contrary, it is pressure for that investigation to continue.
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“The CPI is not fooled by the claims of the dictatorship to simulate a false reform of the justice system”, he said. Solorzano, and this is because on January 16 the country had to report to the court, but on January 3 Venezuela asked the agency for more details about the accusations and 10 days later it received a response, so according to the document signed by the fiscal Karim Khan, the lapses undoubtedly impeded the diligence of the accused State.
Without much internal pressure from the Venezuelan opposition, even trying to organize and group together, it seems that the international path continues to be the strongest. The pressure from the US and the ICC give Maduro a “very limited period of maneuver for forceful actions,” political scientist Daniel Arias explains to this newspaper.
Arias also believes that a major problem for the president could be “being trapped within Vladimir Putin’s policy of confrontation with the US” because this could lead to more forceful action by the US government against the Chavista regime.
Challenges also present themselves for the opposition. The political scientist Walter Molina considers that the task of the adverse factors is precisely to generate a break within the dominant Chavista coalition. “Without achieving that, I see it unlikely that Maduro and his entourage would think of handing over power, even if they are defeated in elections.”
Molina reaffirms the need for that internal pressure that should be helped by a possible reestablishment of dialogues in Mexico, the demand of the ICC and rapprochements with the Americans.
The same US ambassador to Venezuela has insisted on the need to resume the dialogue table in Mexico, but the conditions from Caracas is that the Colombian businessman be released Alex Saab, something that is far from reality.
ANDA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
Correspondent of THE TIME
Caracas
On Twitter: anarodriguez_b
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