In 2025 the exceptional tax measures that have been applied in the last five years have disappeared to combat the effects of the first pandemic and the Ukraine War later, and this has had a disruptive effect on families’ pockets; The data … The INE supports it. Last February, the CPI closed with a 3%increase, but if the figure ‘with constant taxes’ is taken, which is a statistical index that eliminates the effect of tax modifications, it turns out that the price acceleration would have been 2.3%. That is, that 23.33% of inflation recorded last month (or seven tenths of that 3%) is explained by the renewed tax pressure.
Experts had already been warning of the effect of withdrawal of tax measures on inflation in our country, which already chains five months above the eurozone average; In February, the harmonized IPC of the euro zone was 2.4%, and that of Spain, of 2.9%.
The electricity price is the element that has weighed the most in the entire package, After in January a fixed VAT of 21% on the invoices paid by households was reinstated. Although, it should be noted that during the last year a flexible rule had already been applied by virtue of which the full tax could be established if the price fell below 45 euros/MWh. Before this, since June 2021, a VAT of 10% had been applied, except for the period July 2022-December 2023, when the tax was in 5% as an exceptional measure to combat an energy crisis that did not give truce.
Well, last January the normal taxation returned, an extreme that has placed the inflation of the electrical invoice in February in 28.1% in interannual terms, when at constant prices it would have been in 16.9%. If the IPC increased in what we have had of the year, the rise has been 12%, while without tax normalization it would have been 2.2%. This explains the strong increase in energy prices (9%), although Natural gas also threw upand did it equally for VAT, by the way. In February 2025, the IPC of natural gas stood at 7.1% in interannual terms, after in April 2024 the tax of this resource went from 10% to 21%. If this modification had not occurred, in the second month of 2025 the gas would have reduced 2.7%.
With regard to the shopping basket, the recovery of normal taxation has been equally disruptive. Last September The essential foods enjoyed by a type of 0% were taxed by 2%, And in the case of paste and sunflower oil, they climbed from 5% to 7.5%. Thus until January 1, when the basic basket recovered a VAT of 4%, and the pasta and sunflower oil, of 10%.
Well, after this, In the first two months of the year the IPC of the ‘Food’ group (as measuring the INE) accumulated a 0.9% rise. If the tax exemptions were maintained, however, the acceleration would have been only 0.4%. Rice, for example, has increased 1.8% so far this year, while with the previous VAT, 0.1% would have been reduced. The list continues with the flour (1.3% rise vs 0.6% reduction maintaining VAT), bread (1.5% vs 0%), paste (0.3% vs -1.2%), milk (2.3% vs 0.4%), eggs (1.3% vs -0.6%), potatoes (1.6% vs 0.0.08%) or cheese (2.1% vs 0.3%).
A remarkable case is that of yogurts, who have taken the opposite path and in what we have been overwhelmed 3.8% after, in December 2024, Junts and the PP made a clamp the government’s tax package to carry out a tax reduction for this product (it went from 10% to 4%). The Treasury will cost 185 million euros -that is why the Ministry led by María Jesús Montero wanted to block it -but the Spaniards have saved them from an inflationary rebound of 1.5%, which is what would have been increasing the yogurts of having remained in the same tax rate, according to the INE.
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