Draghi cannot lose the League’s votes for the Quirinale
Double bound. The hypothesis of introducing thevaccination obligation by law for all persons aged 18 and over and the match of the election of the new President of the Republic, with the voting starting on Monday 24 January at 3 pm, they are connected to each other. Despite the three main Italian trade unions and almost all the majority political forces (except the Lega and a slice of the 5 Stars) ask for a change with the mandatory vaccine, also supported by the CTS coordinator Franco Locatelli, Prime Minister Mario Draghi will probably go forward step by step, deciding in the Council of Ministers tomorrow, January 5, the Super Green Pass for all workers and postponing the decision by about ten days (based on the trend of infections and hospitalizations) a decree introducing the mandatory vaccine.
But why this excessive hesitation of the Prime Minister? Very simple. Super Mario, as he hinted at the press conference at the end of 2021, he would be willing to move to the Quirinale but to do so, given his large majority, he must necessarily be elected on the first ballot, when the qualified majority of the big voters is needed. And, considering that due to the (high) risk of early elections in the spring (almost impossible to find another prime minister to keep this heterogeneous and always divided majority together), an estimated 200 francs shooters are estimated, Draghi absolutely cannot afford to lose support. from Matteo Salvini and the League.
The leader of the Carroccio is opposed to the vaccination requirement and an acceleration of the premier on the eve of the Quirinale match could trigger a sort of revolt of the Northern League, ready en masse not to vote for Draghi. AND Super Mario, considering the probable defections, he needs the about 200 votes of the Carroccio. Also because a sensational rejection of Draghi, who has one of the largest majorities in the history of the Republic and has the support of Europe, the markets and most of the Italian and international media, would be a very hard and irremediable blow.
Not only would it lead to his resignation as prime minister, but it would almost certainly undermine all other hypotheses, such as that of president of the European Commission or of the World Bank. Basically, if Draghi is a candidate for the Quirinale and his political career is over at the first ballot. This is why he hesitates on the mandatory vaccine (just as there is no clarity on the rules for returning to school after the Christmas holidays), he cannot lose the League’s votes.
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