That President Joe Biden is going through a bad time is something that was already known. However, a new survey of New York Times and the Sienna College published this Monday put numbers to the deep abyss in which it finds itself.
(Read here: Work in the United States increased in June and unemployment remains)
An abyss that only the most unpopular presidents in the history of the United States have occupied and to which he has fallen, apparently, because not even his own party supports him.
(See here: López Obrador travels to the United States under economic and migratory pressure)
According to the Times-Sienna poll, only 33% of Americans approve of his performance. This is the lowest figure he has obtained since he became president and for which only five other leaders of the country have passed: Harry Truman in 1952, when he considered the possibility of a third period in the White House; Richard Nixon (1974), in the days before his resignation over the Watergate scandal; Jimmy Carter, in 1979 after the seizure of the US embassy in Iran; George H. Bush (1992), months before being defeated by Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, after Barack Obama’s landslide victory in 2008.
Biden, in fact, has reached a rock bottom that Donald Trump did not reach even at the worst moment of his mandate, when he faced an impeachment trial in January 2021 after his supporters violently took over the Capitol to try to keep him in power.
Although the disapproval among Republicans is almost absolute – somewhat predictable – the terrible numbers that Biden amasses are a consequence of the deterioration of his image among Democrats and so-called independents.
Based on the sample, 64% of Democrats do not want him to seek re-election and say they would prefer a different candidate
Although 70% of his party still supports him -according to the Times poll- it is a very low figure for a president among his own community, which generally tends to range between 80 and 90% at least.
Among independents, their disapproval is 64%. Very high if compared to the electoral results of 2020, elections in which the vote was taken by 52% of this segment of the electorate.
Even more serious, and according to this same survey, only 13% believe that the country is going in the right direction.
To put this latest number in context, it is the lowest in the history of this type of measurement and is only compared to the one reached during the 2008 economic crisis, caused by the implosion of the real estate market.
When Americans were asked about the most crippling problem facing the country, 35% indicated the state of the economy and inflation.
Two factors that, without a doubt, explain the delicate moment of the American president. Although his popularity went into negative territory in August of last year after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the figures continued to decline with the galloping growth of inflation, a hypersensitive issue, since it hits the pocket of the Americans directly.
When Biden took office in January 2021, inflation in the country was 1.4%. The latest figure available, from May 2022, was 8.6%, the highest number in more than three decades. And it is expected that the one for June, which will be known this Wednesday, July 13, will be the same or even higher.
To a large extent, this is a phenomenon that Biden is not responsible for and that economists attribute, among other things, to the stimulus packages that were approved during the Trump administration and then at the beginning of the Biden to deal with the covid-19 pandemic and the threat of recession that it brought with it.
Likewise, the infarction of the production chains, which raised the prices of many products and the high cost of energy, which has skyrocketed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In just one year, the price of the average gallon in the United States went from an average US$3 to more than US$5, an increase of more than 60 percent that has contributed to rising prices in all sectors of the economy.
Although the unemployment rate in the country is one of the lowest in history (3.6%), wages have not increased in the same proportion as the cost of living.
Despite them, Americans have continued to spend, which led to the increase in interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve a few days ago as a strategy to try to curb inflation.
But as usually happens in this type of situation, the electorate is inclined to punish the leaders of the day, so it is about dynamics that are out of their control.
For Biden, perhaps the most painful number in the recent Times poll is the one that has to do with his political future.
Based on the sample, 64% of Democrats do not want him to seek re-election and say they would prefer a different candidate. In fact, only 25% of this community wants to be represented again in the 2024 elections.
Its popularity is even worse among those under 30 years of age. In this group, 90% are opposed to seeking re-election.
A gloomy scenario for a president who has already announced that he will seek the party’s nomination for a second term.
And the criticism is at all levels. 33% think that Biden, at 79 years old, is already too old to continue in power. Another 12% think that he will not be able to defeat the candidate chosen by the Republicans and 10% think that he is not liberal enough.
Interestingly, the same poll shows that a majority of Americans preferred a second Biden term to a Trump return to power.
Still, Biden’s current numbers bode ill with just four months to go before the midterm elections in November when control of the House and Senate will be at stake.
Although the president’s name is not on the ballot, his low popularity could negatively affect the party’s candidates.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
TIME CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON
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