A study conducted by FiveThirtyEight shows that almost 50% of Republican candidates deny Biden’s legitimate victory
“The signal is the truth, the noise is what distracts us from the truth.” This is the beginning of the book “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, the most renowned and esteemed American political polling center. And it is precisely FiveThirthyEight that publishes a study that brings to mind the American voters, and international observers, the 2020 elections, the most ominous in the history of the Union, at least in the epilogue with the assault on Congress fomented by the then US President Donald Trump, unable to recognize Joe Biden’s victory. The “rigged elections” and Trump’s machinations to keep his place in the oval office led to the assault on American institutions and, even today, have left their mark in the dynamics of the Republican Party.
According to FiveThirtyEight, in fact, in view of the Midterm elections next November, Americans will find 50% of Republican candidates who are openly, or in a slightly less nuanced way, a denial of the 2020 election results.
Nate Silver’s study center initially considered new reports, discussion videos, current campaign material, and social media posts. He then contacted every Republican candidate running for government office in November by phone. Aspiring deputies, senators, governors, secretaries of state and attorneys general received the question of who won the 2020 elections and how they won them, whether honestly or by deception.
Of the 529 candidates running in November, 195 outright denied the election results, questioning the legitimacy of Biden’s victory. Not only statements of circumstance, but a stance that also passed through legal actions that had the intent of upsetting the electoral result or that did not certify the democratic victory. Another 61, however, raised doubts about the outcome of the elections. The latter did not expressly say that the elections were rigged, nor did they take legal action, but at the same time they never conceded the victory of the Democratic Party and – heard by FiveThirtyEight – they declared that they had more than a doubt about the legitimacy of its victory, raising doubts about potential fraud.
There is also a number of future candidates for the Midterm, 115 to be precise, who did not want to answer the questions of the study center and on which the official position was not found. In the Grand Old Party (GOP) there are also politicians who recognized Biden’s victory to a small extent. In fact, 30% of the candidates accepted the popular will of November 2019. Of these, only 71 accepted the result completely, while another 87 believe that the former vice president of Obama won the elections, but maintain some doubts about their integrity
We often speak of the United States as a democracy in difficulty, as a split country that Trump with his presidency and the epilogue of January 6 has accentuated even more. The fact that many Republican candidates have not yet overcome the defeat in the presidential elections and continue to revive the theories on the possible electoral fraud that took place, in the days in which the sentences of the relative trial are celebrated, among other things, is significant.
FiveThirtyEight continues its study by giving the percentages of election deniers in the odor of election in November. In the House of Representatives there are 126 those who have at least a 95% chance of winning, while another 16 candidates find themselves in more uncertain electoral situations. In the Senate the number drops considerably with 3 senators who have the almost absolute certainty of being elected, while 5 are in the running but the result is not obvious. As regards the role of governor, however, there are 6 deniers in the lead and two others could come from the “swing states” of Arizona and Pennsylvania.
«The problem of having deniers in these public offices – continues the polling center – is what they could do if the electoral results were not to their liking. A governor who does not believe in results that are unfavorable to him could block or send votes by challenging the popular vote, while an elected member of Congress can vote to have those votes counted or blocked ”.
The November Midterms seemed to have a foregone conclusion shortly after the beginning of the Biden presidency, especially after the abandonment of Afghanistan by American soldiers and some social videos that have traveled around the world, but to date, many polls see a Democratic Party growing and leading in almost all polls. The fact, however, that those who still give a string to Trump’s conspiracy theories enter the next US parliament is a signal. And if, as Silver says in his book, “the signal is the truth” then perhaps there is something to worry about.
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