HAMBURG (Reuters) – Lower soybean yields expected in South America’s top producers are likely to spur major soybean export deals to the United States from June, oilseed analysts at consultancy Oil World said on Tuesday.
Oil World estimates that combined soybean harvests in the current 2021/2022 season in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will drop to around 186.3 million tonnes. The volume would be 7.4 million tonnes lower than last season, and the lowest in four years.
Amid uncertainty over the size of the final crop after unfavorable weather conditions, which range from drought to excessive rain, South American farmers may also experience pent-up sales in the coming months, keeping more soybeans in stock as a hedge against inflation, he said. to Oil World.
“U.S. farmers will benefit as buyers in importing countries will increasingly shift to U.S. soybeans starting in June or July, with the biggest increase for the year likely to occur in September/December 2022,” Oil said. World.
“But already in the next few weeks, US soybean export sales are likely to increase for shipment in the second half of this season as well as next season.”
Oil World predicts that Brazil’s soybean crop will drop to around 135 million tonnes from 138.5 million tonnes last year. The consultancy estimates Argentina’s crop at around 42 million tonnes, compared to 43.8 million tonnes last year.
Reducing global soybean harvests will also result in lower-than-expected global soybean imports and processing this year, he said.
“The biggest effect will be on soybean meal and so meal prices are likely to strengthen relative to soybean oil in the next three to six months,” Oil World said.
(Reporting by Michael Hogan)
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