This annual report issued by the US Department of Defense on China’s military capabilities indicated that “the acceleration of China’s nuclear expansion may allow it to acquire 700 nuclear warheads by 2027.” It is likely that Beijing will seek to possess at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, which is higher than the pace and quantity estimated in 2020.”
In the previous report to Congress published on September 1, 2020, the US Department of Defense estimated that China had “about 200” nuclear warheads, but estimated that this number would double over the next ten years.
With 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, US military forecasts show a very strong acceleration of Beijing’s nuclear activities.
According to the report, China is likely to have created an emerging “nuclear triad”, that is, the ability to launch nuclear ballistic missiles from the sea, land and air.
In order to arrive at these numbers, the authors of the report relied, in particular, on statements by Chinese officials in official media and on satellite images showing the establishment of a large number of nuclear depots, as a senior official in the Ministry of Defense told the press while presenting this report, of which only part is published and is Classify the remainder as top secret.
The official, who asked not to be named, said the launches included ballistic missiles from submarines and those launched by launchers, as well as the “mobile missile force” that allows missiles to be launched from trucks.
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