China is forging partnerships to create naval bases for its navy more and more distant from its territory. One of them can be installed in Equatorial Guinea, on the west coast of Africa. If this materializes, the military rivalry between Beijing and Washington, until now restricted to the Indo-Pacific region, will extend to the South Atlantic Ocean.
US intelligence reports, quoted by the Washington Post in early December, suggest that Beijing is negotiating with dictator Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo to set up a permanent naval base in the city of Bata – where Chinese companies have already built a deep-water civilian port.
The presence of the Chinese navy in the South Atlantic would heighten military tension in the Gulf of Guinea, an area where Brazil itself has tried to exert military influence, and possibly in the South Atlantic as a whole.
Currently, Brazil has under its jurisdiction about 3.5 million square kilometers of maritime area – called by the government of Amazônia Azul, where, for example, the reserves under exploration in the pre-salt are located. It is through this region that 95% of Brazilian foreign trade routes pass.
But the country disputes with international organizations the right to sovereignty over an area of over 2 million square kilometers, where it is believed that there is more oil and important underwater deposits of cobalt (in a region called the Rio Grande Elevation) and other minerals.
China’s effort has been interpreted by Western military analysts as an attempt to project military power on a global scale. Beijing is also negotiating similar agreements in Cambodia and the United Arab Emirates.
Another hypothesis is that Beijing is trying to draw the attention of Western powers from the Indo-Pacific. That would make at least a part of the US navy have to worry about Chinese activities in other regions of the world – and move away from the sea in southern China.
One of the biggest hotspots of military tension in the world today is the island of Taiwan, located in this region. The Chinese government understands that this autonomous territory is part of China and has promised to get it back (analysts say this would happen before 2027, when the People’s Liberation Army of China turns 100).
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The United States, for its part, stated that it will defend the democratic island in the event of a Chinese invasion. Currently, Asia is the region of the world that most attracts American attention. This year, Joe Biden’s government made a defense pact with Australia and Britain that will give Australians access to nuclear-powered submarines.
Establishing its first base in East Africa, in Djibouti, in 2016, Xi Jinping’s government defended motives quite different from an alleged attempt at global power projection: fighting piracy and protecting Chinese trade routes and citizens.
This speech would fit the scenario of the Gulf of Guinea, the main focus of piracy in the Atlantic. The Brazilian Navy even carried out anti-piracy missions in the region in mid-2013.
Lula’s government brought Brazil closer to Equatorial Guinea
As a matter of fact, Brazil’s rapprochement with Equatorial Guinea began in 2003 and coincided with the coming to power of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In his government, he focused Brazilian diplomacy on the “Global South” (which was once called the Third World), according to the book “Euforia e Fracasso do Brasil Grande” (Ed. Contexto, 2017), by journalist Fábio Zanini.
In 2013, after leaving power, Lula traveled to the country and met Mbasogo (who has been in power since 1979) as a consultant. The visit resulted in an investigation by the Federal District Attorney’s Office, for alleged international influence peddling. He would have asked the dictator to favor Brazilian construction companies, using promises of financing by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES).
Mbasogo’s son, Teodorín, who is the vice president of Equatorial Guinea, was investigated on suspicion of money laundering in Brazil.
But, back to the expansion of China, the American diplomacy has already started to pressure Equatorial Guinea not to close the agreement for the installation of the naval base.
But, even if the negotiation does not go forward, Beijing has at least 50 options of ports to negotiate in Sub-Saharan Africa. These facilities were built or financed in different countries with capital or companies from China, according to a survey by the think tank CSIS (Washington’s Center for International Strategic Studies) published in The Economist magazine.
This does not mean that China will ally itself militarily with any of these countries. Unlike Washington, Xi Jinping’s regime historically has no allies or engages in military mutual defense pacts (except in the case of North Korea), but it does make strategic partnerships. Among these partners are Russia, Iran and Pakistan.
A naval base in the Atlantic would allow the Chinese navy not only to restock its ships, but to rearm them and repair damage. This would not pose a major threat to the United States and its allies, which have numerous naval bases in the Atlantic, but it would heighten tension in the region.
“China has no pretensions in the military field here (South Atlantic). But it would put a foot in the American area of influence,” said retired colonel and military analyst Paulo Filho, who holds a master’s degree in Defense and Strategy from the National Defense University in Beijing.
The importance of Nicaragua
A few days after the release of the US intelligence report on Equatorial Guinea, a diplomatic event contributed to heighten speculation about Chinese intentions: Nicaragua broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan and started a series of cooperation agreements with China.
The Chinese Communist Party-controlled Global Times newspaper reported on December 13 that Managua should be included in the “Belt and Road” initiative, the so-called New Silk Road.
It is a Chinese strategy to establish partnerships and finance infrastructure works in developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa. It is interpreted by Western analysts as a way of exerting economic and diplomatic control and pressure on these countries.
But what is the relationship of Chinese naval expansion with a small country in Central America?
For now, none. But Nicaragua has already played host to a project involving a Chinese billionaire to build a new canal connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific – to rival the Panama Canal.
The project has been on hold since 2016, but, in theory, could be resumed with funds from the New Silk Road. It would be like creating a tense situation comparable to the impasse involving Taiwan, but this time in the backyard of the United States.
And how is the situation in Brazil?
The South Atlantic is immense and possibly there would be no encounters of Brazilian military vessels with Chinese or American ones in the ocean, which would generate potential danger of accidental conflict (a real possibility today in the Indo-Pacific).
An eventual friction would be more likely in the vicinity of British Isles in the South Atlantic, such as Ascension or St. Helena, which are closer to the West African coast.
But the installation of the Chinese base could, in theory, foment an arms race in the region.
There is no consensus among analysts about Brazil’s naval capabilities. But today, the Brazilian squadron would have better conditions to defend the country’s coast and part of the Blue Amazon.
The country has regular patrols and could use a naval task force to deal with specific threats, according to Navy sources consulted by this columnist. However, after the sale of the São Paulo aircraft carrier, Brazil’s ability to project power into more distant areas was reduced.
This scenario should change with the Prosub program for building submarines. The first of them, the Riachuelo, with conventional propulsion, was launched at sea in 2020 and should be incorporated into the fleet this year. Another three similar to it, Humaitá, Tonelero and Angostura, are under construction.
There are many differences between conventional and nuclear submarines. One of the most important is that the nuclear can remain submerged and hidden indefinitely (in practice, until the crew’s food stores run out). Conventional ones have to periodically climb close to the surface to raise the snorkel and recharge batteries – so they can be detected.
For this reason, Brazil will only have real conditions to project power in the South Atlantic with the completion of the construction, scheduled for 2029, of the Álvaro Alberto nuclear-powered submarine.
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