United States: What is the ‘Plan B’ to replace Joe Biden’s candidacy and how viable is it really?

On paper, the argument is rather simple. At least for a significant sector of the Democratic Party, US President Joe Biden demonstrated this past Thursdayduring his debate against Donald Trump in Atlanta, who is not in the best physical and mental condition to govern the country for another four years.

Although they know that trying to replace him at this point in the presidential race is risky, not doing so would guarantee them a defeat in the November elections. Not only in the race for the White House but also of Congress, since a candidate’s poor performance at the polls generally drags down the legislative vote.

By choosing someone different, they say, they might have a chance, however remote it may seem today. That is the theory of the editorial board. From the newspaper The New York Timeswho last Friday asked Biden to step aside -for the good of the country- and a large chorus of voices that has not stopped resounding despite the fact that the great leaders of the party such as Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and others came out this weekend in his defense.

They informally call it “plan B”The problem, however suggestive it may sound, is that in practice the plan could be worse than the original. The cure, in other words, would end up being more expensive than the disease.

What are the difficulties of replacing Joe Biden’s candidacy in the United States?

In principle, there are two ways to trigger an earthquake of this magnitude: one voluntary and one forced. Both, in any case, are explosive.

Although Biden has not yet been nominated by the party as its candidate for the presidential elections – something that happens within the framework of the Democratic Party Convention– has already won the support of a large majority of the delegates who must designate him as such through the primary election process. Of the 3,973 delegates that were up for grabs, the president obtained 3,894 and only needs a simple majority (1,987) to vote for his name. Biden also has the power to handpick the names of the delegates who will attend the Convention.

Forcing Biden out or withdrawing right now would be unleashing a Category 5 hurricane. Everyone calling for it has no idea of ​​the destruction that would cause.

In other words, unless the president voluntarily steps down, it would be very difficult to nominate another candidate without his blessing. And so far, the president has given no indication that he is considering that option. Instead, he has spent the past few days insisting that Thursday was just a bad night and that he will continue in the race.

And even if he did, the process would be traumatic. Party rules do not allow the president to transfer his votes to a candidate of his choosing. In the event of a Biden withdrawal, delegates would be “free” to nominate whomever they wish within the framework of the convention, which is due to meet starting on August 19.

The two paths that would exist for a replacement candidacy in the United States

In that scenario, Biden could choose between two paths. The first is to offer his support to a single candidate in the hope that the delegates will heed his call and choose him. The most logical option, if he goes down that route, is his vice president, Kamala Harris.

The problem with Harris, despite having been in the White House for three and a half years, is that she is just as unpopular as Biden and does not improve her position in the run-up to the elections. In addition, the delegates, once free, would not be obliged to vote for her.

The second is to not support anyone and let the best man win. But that would be seen as an act of disloyalty to the vice president who, as the first woman – and of African origin – to reach that position, still has many supporters.

Additionally, if it were Harris, they would have to choose a vice presidential candidate. The most likely candidate is California Governor Gavin NewsomBut since both Harris and Newsom have legal residency in the same state (California), they could not be running mates, as that would nullify the state’s votes for the presidential election. And without them, there is no path to the White House.

But the biggest fear is that with or without Biden’s blessing, it would lead to an intense interparty struggle to elect a candidate that would leave them fractured just months before the election.

And what is the ‘forced route’?

The forced route is even more traumatic. Although party rules state that delegates must vote for the candidate who won the primaries, there is no such obligation. This is because the vote, according to the stipulations, must be made “conscientiously.”

A concept that, according to some, gives them the power to lean towards someone different. But if the two previous alternatives are risky, ousting the winner of the primaries without his consent would be the equivalent of a nuclear bomb.

With Biden -says this advisor- at least we have a plan, a way forward. The other, the famous plan B, is a leap into the void.

For the vast majority of analysts, the only way forward – if they want to win the race – is to have the president’s endorsement.

There is a “third way” that is being explored and could gain traction in the coming weeks: Biden is nominated during the Convention and then withdraws. If that happens – since the Convention would already be in the rearview mirror – the decision on the candidate would be up to the Democratic National Committeewho could handpick him.

But that would also be explosive, as it would be interpreted as a ruse to evade a transparent and democratic process. Not to mention the little time there would be to “mature” that candidate before the elections.

Which brings us to the core problem: changing course at this point in the race would be a titanic task in terms of logistics and public relations. For obvious reasons, such as neutralizing the image of internal chaos and simply replacing Biden’s name on the ballot. But also for many others, such as presenting the country and the world with a last-minute alternative whose shortcomings – unlike Biden’s – would come to light in a condensed form in the last two months of the campaign.

That is why the idea that “the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t” is slowly gaining ground.

“Forcing Biden out or withdrawing at this time would be unleashing a Category 5 hurricane. Everyone calling for it has no idea of ​​the destruction that would cause,” a senior Democratic Party source close to the discussions told this newspaper.

For this advisor, Trump is such a bad candidate that a large number of Americans still prefer a weakened Biden – surrounded by good advisors – to the case that would come with another 4 years of the former president.

“With Biden – says this advisor – at least we have a plan, a way forward. The other, the famous plan B, is a leap into the void.”

SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI

Correspondent for EL TIEMPO

Washington