The next hurricane season in the Atlantic basin will be more intense than usual due to the La Niña phenomenon and high sea temperaturesaccording to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, in English) of the United States, which predicted this Tuesday that between 3 and 6 major category hurricanes will form.
(You might be interested in: Climate change caused more rain during hurricane season)
The hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, will once again be above average and, if confirmed, would be the seventh consecutive year that this has happened, NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement.
a press conference.
(You might be interested: Hurricane season in Colombia, why would they be stronger this year?)
Experts from this US public agency estimate that between 14 and 21 tropical storms could be recorded in the next six monthswhen the average is 14, between 6 and 10 hurricanes (with an average of 7) and between 3 and 6 of major category (3 on average).
That would mean at least 3 hurricanes corresponding to categories 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale, which means winds of more than 111 miles per hour (178 km / h).
‘The girl’
The conditions that lead to anticipate an above-average season go through the current phase of La Niña, which, when it occurs, tends to have fewer tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and more in the Atlantic.
In this way, according to a NOAA forecast published on the 18th, this year there is a 60% chance of below normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season.
Add to La Niña warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, weaker trade winds, and an increase in the African monsoon, which contributes to “stronger, longer-lasting hurricanes during most
of the seasons,” NOAA said in its forecast.
Spinrad explained that there is a 65% chance of a more active season than normal, 25% within normal and only 10% below.
“We just experienced two extremely active hurricane seasons, marking the first time on record that two seasons of
consecutive hurricanes, the list of 21 storm names” that are announced each year has been exhausted, he said.
‘You have to be prepared’
The NOAA administrator gave the press conference from New York, a city where Hurricane Ida last year left 13 people dead in basement apartments flooded by heavy rains.
The mayor of New York, Eric Adams, said in the same presentation of the forecast that he is “concerned” by the news received and that hurricane seasons “have taken on a whole new meaning” and now we have to think about the possible loss of life and not only in material damage.
Ida brought, he indicated, a “clear message” for everyone: “Preparation is everything. It is something that the head of NOAA also stressed, since that hurricane, in his opinion, emphasized the” vulnerability and consequences “that tropical cyclones they can involve not only coastal regions but also interior ones, since it impacted a total of 22 US states. For this reason, Spinrad took the opportunity to insist on the need to prepare in time for the arrival of a hurricane and warned that The improvement in technology allows them to reduce the margin of error each year and their forecast for this year has a 70% chance of being fulfilled.
New technology
NOAA will “triple its operational supercomputing capacity,” which will mean increased calculations and an improved ability to assimilate data collected on storms.
He explained that since 2000 the improvement in technology has led them to improve the possible path of storms by 57%, which allows reducing evacuation zones.
And the margin of error in the average intensity of the National Hurricane Center
The U.S., based in Miami, is now 40% lower than it was in 2000, allowing them to more accurately predict changes in cyclone strength.
Looking to the future NOAA “will triple its operational supercomputing capacity”which will mean more calculations and an improved ability to assimilate data collected in storms, Spinrad said, noting that they will have better systems, sensors, satellites and “hurricane hunter” aircraft.
NOAA indicated that this summer they will have five unmanned surface vehicles and aircraft available to send data on the state of the sea and the atmosphere, and will also expand their ability to anticipate heavy rains and the possible occurrence
of storm surge in the Atlantic basin.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With information from Eph.
More world news:
-Two children killed and a dozen wounded in Texas school shooting
-The plan with which they sought to assassinate former President George W. Bush
-Brazil: at least 21 dead in the middle of an operation against drug trafficking
#United #States #active #hurricane #season