This year’s presidential election comes to voting in the first round with an undefined scenario, highlights the Estadão. Among the more than 156 million voters eligible to vote, the group of undecided voters, the abstention rate and the so-called useful vote will be decisive for the extension or not of the campaign, which officially started on August 16. The last 46 days have been marked by the persistence of the electoral framework and polarization in a dispute that brings together for the first time in republican history a president against an ex-president.
The polls point to a high degree of consolidated vote for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), leader in the surveys, and Jair Bolsonaro, runner-up. Figures from Ipec (formerly Ibope) and Datafolha released on Saturday night reinforced the scenario of uncertainty.
On the eve of the vote, the PT’s advantage in relation to valid votes – those attributed only to candidates, not counting null, white and undecided votes – is 14 percentage points. Lula scored 51% on Ipec and 50% on Datafolha; the president reached 37% and 36%, respectively. In the Search Aggregator of Estadão, Lula has 51% of the voting intentions and Bolsonaro, 36%. The second round occurs when no candidate achieves a majority of the total sum of votes cast.
Reduced in the stimulated surveys, when the names of the candidates are informed, the index of undecided is 11% of voters in the spontaneous poll by Datafolha released yesterday. And 15% say they can change their minds until it’s time to vote.
CHRONOLOGY
The history of presidential disputes shows that, in similar scenarios, there was a second round. In 2002, Lula had 50% of the valid votes in Ibope and 48% in Datafolha. At the polls, PT won 46.4% of the votes and needed the second phase of the election to win José Serra (PSDB). In 2006, PT had 49% of valid votes in Ibope and 50% in Datafolha. He obtained 48.6% at the polls and went to the second round against Geraldo Alckmin, from the PSDB – currently in the PSB and candidate for vice on his ticket. In 2010, Dilma Rousseff had 51% of valid votes in Ibope and 50% in Datafolha. The former president won 46.9% of the votes and faced Serra in a new round.
Whether or not a second round will occur will also depend, in part, on the level of abstention. The rate of voters who do not show up to vote is more concentrated in the low-income segment and, therefore, is of greater concern to the PT campaign. To give you an idea, four years ago, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the abstention level in the first round reached 20.3% of the electorate, the highest since 1998.
Yesterday, the General Inspector of Electoral Justice, Minister Benedito Gonçalves, rejected a request by Bolsonaro’s coalition to limit the free public transport in today’s vote. According to the magistrate, the coalition’s argument, which tried to compare the non-collection of fares, “in a general and impersonal character”, with the organization of clandestine transport to groups of voters, “descending to the absurd” “develops into absurdity”.
USEFUL VOTE
The polls also show the political center distant from the leaders. Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB), mainly, failed to establish themselves as alternatives in the dispute and had to confront, in recent weeks, the offensive of Lula’s campaign for the useful vote (more information on page A15).
The political forces situated between Lula and Bolsonaro account for between 12% and 13% of valid votes, according to the most recent polls. If insufficient to threaten the polarized fight, this contingent of votes could be decisive in an eventual second round. Yesterday, during an agenda in São Paulo, Lula hinted at the formation of future alliances. “We don’t have to be squeamish about talking to anyone. Our boat is like Noah’s Ark”, said the PT.
The campaigns of the two viable candidates, who face high rates of rejection, failed to expand their universes of party support. Affiliated with the PL, Bolsonaro relied on the support of the hard core of Centrão parties, while the PT closed an alliance on the left. In the final stretch, embodying the anti-Bolsonaro candidate, he attracted support from former political opponents and names in the Judiciary, in addition to strengthening dialogue with businessmen, but without being able to achieve the desired “broad front”.
The programmatic discussions were left aside – Lula did not present a detailed government plan. In the final stretch, the president reinforced the intensification of the relationship with Minister Alexandre de Moraes, president of the TSE, and raised doubts as to whether he would accept any result of the polls. Yesterday, without citing Moraes, Bolsonaro returned to the charge: “There are certain people who think they can do whatever they want anywhere in Brazil, period.”
In a five-minute speech broadcast on national television, Moraes yesterday defended electronic voting machines and said that the 2022 elections symbolize “respect for democracy”. “The security and freedom of the vote will be carried out both with the observance of the absolute secrecy of the vote, which is fully guaranteed by the electronic voting machines, and by respecting the broad and civilized freedom of political discussion, removing any possibility of violence or coercion and pressure by groups political or economic”, said the president of the TSE.
The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.
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