Ukrainian War | Russian losses in Ukraine are clearly higher than estimated, believe Finnish experts: “Loss of human lives means absolutely nothing to Russia”

Researchers challenge the numbers presented by the commander of the British armed forces, according to which 50,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war so far.

National Defense University special researcher, major evp. Jukka Viitaniemen According to

“When Ukraine claims that there are now around 38,000 fallen, the ratio would be extremely bad. In modern warfare, a thousand dead should correspond to about 5,000 wounded or even more,” says Viitaniemi.

Commander of the British Armed Forces, Admiral Tony Radak too estimated on Sunday in a television interview with the British broadcasting company BBC that 50,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war so far.

It has not been possible to verify the actual figures. According to Viitaniemi, the figures reported by Ukraine are the closest to reality.

Read more: Commander of the British Armed Forces: Russia has lost almost a third of its land combat capability

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was estimated to send at least 150,000 troops to the border. If Radakin’s figure is correct, it may actually have lost a third of its total offensive strength in less than five months of warfare.

According to Viitaniemi, most of the total losses, i.e. the number of dead and wounded in the war, are Russian ground forces, whose strength was the American media CNN by before the war about 280,000.

Russia already suffered heavy losses during the first three days of the attack.

“Two conclusions can be drawn from this. First, Russia had a completely wrong idea of ​​what it was up against and what kind of battle it was. Secondly, when you look at the history of decades and even centuries, losses have not meant a lot to the Russian armed forces. They are ready to suffer disproportionately large losses, which reflects the position of an individual, for example, a soldier in the armed forces,” says Viitaniemi.

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At the beginning of the war, according to CNN, the Ukrainian army had about 196,000 people, the Russian army had about 900,000. In addition, Ukraine had a reserve of about 900,000 people and Russia about two million.

“Although the loss of human life is tragic, it means absolutely nothing to Russia.”

General Staff former head of intelligence, major general evp. Pekka Toveri says that based on the 25,000 dead Russian soldiers reported by British intelligence, Russia’s total losses should approach at least one hundred thousand. This would already be two-thirds of those who participated in the Russian attack and more than one-third of the strength of Russia’s entire ground forces.

Counting the 38,000 dead reported by Ukraine, the total number of losses would already be over 150,000.

According to the comrade, calculated with today’s military mathematics, the number of wounded should be 3-5 times higher than the number of dead when talking about the Russian armed forces. According to Tover, Western countries have better protective equipment and medical care, so their corresponding number is normally 8–9.

Friend highlights the importance of equipment losses. According to Radakin, Russia has lost nearly 1,700 tanks and nearly 4,000 armored vehicles in the war. The comrade estimates that in reality the numbers are somewhat lower, but in any case, the Russian ground forces have lost a large part of their modern attack equipment.

“A significant part of the best equipment has been lost, which cannot be replaced with similar equipment. If a T72B3 tank with a French thermal camera is lost in the war, it has to be replaced with an old T72 with weak anti-darkness equipment, as modern components are no longer available from the West. Then we go in the dark almost blind, and there is no more telling the children,” says Toveri.

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Read more: Why do turrets on Russian tanks fly like caps? “It’s a design flaw,” says the researcher to CNN

“Although the loss of human life is tragic, it means absolutely nothing to Russia. Russian dictatorship and [presidentti Vladimir] Putin it does not take much time for 25,000 soldiers to fall”.

“The battalion can melt into a company and still continue fighting, as happened to Finland in the winter war.”

However, the comrade reminds that the best soldiers of both Ukraine and Russia fought and many of them fell in the early stages of the war. US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank told on Wednesday that the Kremlin has likely ordered Russian regions to form “volunteer battalions”.

“They seem to be quite an old bunch. Throwing in a line with a month’s quick training, then it’s not a high-quality group. Rather, it’s cannon fodder to supplement worn-out troops,” says Toveri.

Comrade believes that Ukraine has suffered losses at the same pace as Russia. However, there is even less official information about them than about Russian losses.

But what does it take to break the necks of the two-headed eagle? According to Viitaniemi, the establishment of “volunteer battalions” is a sign that some kind of pain threshold has already been crossed.

The comrade, on the other hand, says that the rule of thumb in warfare is that after 20-30 percent losses, the group is defeated and unable to continue.

“However, it is not quite so straightforward, and it depends a lot on the period of time the losses come. If the losses come little by little, the group will be able to continue fighting for a long time. A battalion can melt into a company and still continue fighting, as happened to Finland in the winter war. If such a loss comes in an hour, it is debilitating.”

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Read more: Ukraine and Russia, which suffered heavy losses, are both playing for time – and it is feared that time will work in Putin’s favor

In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has suffered losses precisely little by little. This way it can replace lost troops at a steady pace. Toveri estimates that Ukraine needs to do “something surprising” in order to paralyze Russia’s military forces.

“Russia’s failure did not come as a surprise to me.”

Cloak cape believes that based on the current situation, Ukraine has full potential “no matter what”.

“The starting point is that if Ukraine makes a full-scale campaign, it will have a million soldiers. Also, the normal strength of the Russian armed forces is around one million. Then we talk about total war”, says Viitaniemi.

Read more: Ukraine says it will take back the southern coastal areas with a force of a million people – Expert: “I’m not convinced”

According to Viitaniemi, if Russia had wanted to succeed in its blitzkrieg, i.e. in paralyzing Ukraine’s defenses and replacing its administration, it would have needed three times more troops than Ukraine had under the prevailing conditions.

“Russia’s failure did not come as a surprise to me. This sounds like an afterthought, but maybe just this [hyökkääjien määrän] that’s why I thought the operation was so absurd from a military point of view”.

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