The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage, and the consequences for the automotive world are showing no signs of easing. In view of the future, the estimates are far from positive: according to analysts of S&P Global Mobility, automotive production will drop by 5.2 million units in the next two years. 2.6 million fewer cars in 2022, 2.6 million in 2023: if these predictions are confirmed, the war in Ukraine could result in a reduction in global car production at 81.6 million units this year and 88.5 million units in 2023.
As expected, the region most affected globally will be Europe. Analysts predict that car production will decrease by 1.7 million this year in the Old Continent: of these, just under 1 million due to the loss of demand in Russia and Ukraine, while the remaining cars due to worsening problems supply of semiconductors as well as the loss of wiring and other components of Ukrainian origin. As reported by Carscoops, however, the most important cause of the loss of production could be the potential palladium deficiency of Russian origin. We recall in fact that Russia produces 40% of the palladium mined in the world, two thirds of which is used in vehicles, in particular as an active element in catalytic converters: doing without this metal would mean doing without hundreds of thousands of assembled vehicles. in less.
As for the other regions, it is expected that the production of light vehicles in North America it will decrease by 480,000 units in 2022 and by 549,000 units in 2023, also due to supply chain problems and labor and logistics challenges. One of the analysts at S&P Global Mobility has not ruled out that the latest production loss estimates may be further revised downwards: there is talk of a maximum of 8 million vehicles lost over the next two years.
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