Kristalina Georgieva, director of the International Monetary Fund
(Image Source: La Presse)
War between Russia and Ukraine, according to the IMF, our GDP will be around 2.3% instead of 6.6% last year
There war in Ukraine Italy sinks. According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, our GDP will be around 2.3% instead of 6.6% last year. The energy dependence on Russian gas has a negative impact. In the countries with the greatest downgrade, Germany also appears: in 2022, GDP will grow by 2.1% against 2.8% in 2021.
In general, the International Monetary Fund downgrades growth estimates of the world economy for which a slowdown is expected. After the growth of 6.1% in 2021, in its World economic outlook, the IMF this year’s GDP is next to + 3.6%, respectively 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points less than the projections of January.
If we look beyond 2023, “global growth is expected to decrease to + 3.3% in the medium term”. The war “adds to the series of shocks that have hit the world economy in recent years” and “will seriously hamper global recovery, slowing growth and further increasing inflation”. The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, he explains that “like seismic waves, its effects will spread far and wide, through commodity markets, trade and financial links.” There Russia “It is an important supplier of oil, gas and metals and, together with Ukraine, of wheat and corn. The reduction in the supply of these raw materials has caused their prices to rise considerably.”
Also cut the estimates of the growth ofEurozone at + 2.8% for 2022 and + 2.3% in 2023 after the + 5.3% recorded in 2021. I major downgrades occur in economies such as Germany (+ 2.1% in 2022 and + 2.7% in 2023 after the 2.8% growth in 2021, compared to the January forecasts a decrease of 1.7%, although for 2023 + 0.2% ) andItaly (+ 2.3% in 2022 and + 1.7% in 2023, after the growth of 6.6% in 2021, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the January forecasts, while for 2023 it is 0 , 5% less) “with relatively large manufacturing sectors and greater dependence on energy imports from Russia”.
The main channel through which the war in Ukraine And sanctions on Russia affect the euro area economy “is the rise in global energy prices and energy security. Given that these are net energy importing countries, high global prices represent a negative trade shock for most countries Europeans, which translates into lower production and higher inflation “. It is then estimated a sharp decline inl Russian GDP -8.5% and a 35% contraction of the Ukrainian economy. At the same time, “inflation has become a clear and present danger for many countries. Even before warhas grown on the back of soaring commodity prices and supply / demand imbalances. “We now expect it” to remain high for much longer. “
Meanwhile, he also makes his voice heard there Secretary of the US Treasury, Janet Yellen noting that “some countries and regions, which were already in conditions of food insecurity and emergency, are now facing further price increases and disruptions in the supplies of imported food, fuel and fertilizers. Initial estimates suggest that at least 10 million people in more could be pushed into poverty in sub-Saharan Africa just because of rising food prices. ” The secretary, regarding the meeting of the finance ministers of G20 scheduled in Washington, he said he would try to avoid most contacts with Russian officials who will attend the meetings
After the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth oil prices have dropped significantly: West Texas Intermediate for delivery in May lost $ 5.65, or 5.2 percent, to settle at $ 102.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for delivery in June fell $ 5.91, or 5.2 percent, to close at $ 107.25 a barrel on the London Ice Futures Exchange.
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