UNITED STATES AND EUROPE AGAINST PUTIN OVER UKRAINE: BUT BOTH NEED IT
Joe Biden warns that he is ready to send troops from the Born in the countries of northeastern Europe, in the anteroom of Russia. The European Union warns that in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, Moscow will pay “a heavy price” and is preparing for new sanctions. There GermanyDespite herself, she says she is ready to close the pipeline North Stream 2. But the reality is that, beyond words or warnings, everyone needs Vladimir Putin. The European Union for procurement energetic, which, as the recent events between scarcity of resources and rising prices demonstrate, is fundamental. The United States to prevent the partnership between Russia and China from completing its own transition and effectively become an alliance.
Taken one at a time, the two rivals can be defeated by Washington. But with both of them together, the story would be completely different. There are already those who fear a nightmare scenario, namely a coordinated invasion between Ukraine and Taiwan by Moscow and Beijing. Action that would make it difficult, if not impossible, to respond to both at the same time without the general and total involvement of the American partners. More realistically, Biden’s failure to respond to Russian action on Ukraine could give the signal to China that the sights on Taiwan could be realized without suffering a military response from US power.
BIDEN THREATENS PUTIN WITH “DEVASTATING” ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES AND NATO TROOPS
This is why the positions taken by the White House and Brussels must be recorded, but not magnified. Biden said there will be “devastating economic consequences“for the Russian economy in the event of military action on Ukrainian territory. Biden added that the US and the countries of the Born they would move to strengthen the defense capabilities of the North Eastern European countries. A bogey that Putin wants to avoid at all costs. At the same time, from the G7 also theEuropean Union she came out decisively on the issue. In the final communiqué of the Liverpool summit, Moscow warns that “a further military aggression would have enormous consequences and serious costs”.
“At the moment we are in deterrence mode to prevent aggression from happening but we will send a very clear signal: any aggression against Ukraine will have a high cost for Russia,” said the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy. Josep Borrell, who stated that the EU will act in a coordinated manner with the United States and the United Kingdom whatever their decisions. There Russia he continues to deny that he intends to invade Ukraine and Putin argues that the posting of the Russian military on the border has only defensive purposes against the eastern enlargement of NATO. But at the same time the owner of the Kremlin he knows he can try to push the accelerator to test the opponent’s reactions. Also because both Brussels and Washington need Moscow, for different reasons.
EUROPE READY TO FOLLOW US, BUT NEEDS MOSCOW FOR GAS AND ENERGY
Europe is energy dependent. Just look at the data. In 2020, the EU imported over 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas from 48% from Russia. Virtually half. More: Germany, that is to say the political engine of the EU, is perhaps the country most exposed to imports from Russia, given that they cover about the 90% of its internal consumption of natural gas. It is no coincidence that Angela Merkel has concluded the agreement on North Stream 2, the gas pipeline hated by the White House, despite the contrary opinion first of Trump and then of Biden. The shutdown of the supply taps by Russia has caused a record increase in prices and therefore also in the bills of the various European countries.
THE FEAR OF THE USA: THE RUSSIA-CHINA PARTNERSHIP BECOMING ALLIANCE
Washington’s need, on the other hand, is more strategic and geopolitical. Biden wants to avoid it happening at all costs the final alignment between Moscow and Beijing. Event underestimated for a long time, perhaps too much, by the Pentagon, but which no longer appears to be science fiction. Recently, the Sinorussian military forces have participated together in repeated military exercises involving both their respective naval and air fleets, as well as land troops. With the joint passage, among other things, of military ships in the Strait of Tsugaru, which divides the two main islands of the Japanese archipelago.
A warning to Tokyo, increasingly aligned with Washington, and a direct message to the US: “You do the Aukus, but we are ready to move together”. Not by chance Ukraine and Taiwan they are often experienced and presented in a rather specular way. Recently Putin and Lavrov they explicitly supported the Chinese claims on Taiwan, as well as several articles in the Beijing state media presenting the Ukrainian affair in a way that favors the Kremlin’s rhetoric. In the next few days Putin and Xi Jinping will have a new virtual meeting, yet another in 2021 “for the development of the Russian-Chinese global strategic partnership”.
THE SPECTRUM OF THE COORDINATED ACTION OF RUSSIA AND CHINA ON UKRAINE AND TAIWAN
Biden knows that he cannot allow a total alliance between the two most insidious rivals of the US and for this reason it is assumed that sooner or later he will try to offer to Russia a possibility of cooperation in anti-Chinese function. Far from being taken for granted, however, that that offer does not come too late or that it is not quite late now. Meanwhile, the US and Russian presidents will have a new meeting in the coming days. The problem for the White House is that Putin now feels he has many negotiating levers to use and could up the ante on Ukraine. However, US concessions could give Beijing the wrong message. A puzzle for Biden and for Europe, which must show a hard face to Russia but with the spotlight off they must try to understand if there is room for a compromise.
#Ukraine #warn #Putin #Moscow #serves #Biden #Brussels