Spread Btp-Bund down to 166 points but Jp Morgan sees him at 180 at the end of the year
Closing up for European stock exchangeson the wave of the distension signals recorded in Ukraine. The news of the withdrawal of some Russian troops from the country’s borders and the more constructive attitude shown by the Russian president, Vladimir Putinwho also received the German Chancellor in Moscow, Olaf Scholzmade investors breathe a sigh of relief.
Milan ended trading up by 2.09%, while it spread turned around at 166 points, although the yields of ten-year BTPs rose to 2%. The situation, moreover, remains fluid and is intertwined with fears about the economic trend and inflation. Jp Morgan analysts in fact expect the spread to widen more than previously expected, predicting a level of 180 basis points at the end of the year.
TO Piazza Affari the shares of the banks raised their heads, with Bper (+ 9.15%) in the front row, rewarded the day after the agreement reached to take over 80% of Banca Carige from the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund. Banco Bpm also did very well (+ 2.89%), while the market continues to question whether the bank is in the sights of Unicredit (+ 2.13%). Industrial stocks rallied.
Instead, Eni went against the trend (-1.14%), affected by the slowdown in the value of crude oil. The wti, contract in March, in fact lost 3.7%, reaching 91.86 dollars a barrel. The value of gas is also in sharp decline: the March future falls by 14.95% to 68.69 euros. On the exchange rate front, the euro rose to 1.1365 dollars (1.1304) and 131.46 yen (from 130.71), while the dollar / yen stood at 115.68 (from 115.62 ).
After a weak start, the indexes of the Old Continent have taken the road to the rise, on the first news, later confirmed by the Kremlin, of a withdrawal of some Russian troops from the Ukrainian borders, even if, it has been specified, such movements were already planned. Moreover, since yesterday Russia seems more open to dialogue: the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, spoke of the ‘possibility’ of resolving the crisis with diplomacy.
In addition, Scholz, who met the President of Ukraine yesterday in Kiev, Volodymyr Zelensky, today held an interview with Putin himself. On the other hand, the situation remains hot, especially since Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general, declared that ‘there are no signs on the ground that Russia is reducing its troops at the borders’, while confirming that Moscow has shown openness to the diplomacy. News from Ukraine overshadowed fears related to inflation, which however continues to remain one of the points on which investors are focusing.
So today the words with which the president of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, James Bullard, said the Fed needs to act more aggressively against the rise in consumer prices, reiterating last week’s comments that had put the markets under pressure. So much so that Wall Street has opened higher and is gaining ground, believing in a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis and forgetting the data on producer prices for January, which increased by 1% compared to December, a level higher than expected.
Even the “core” component, the one without the more volatile items represented by the prices of food, energy and commercial services, grew by 0.8% compared to the previous month, against expectations for + 0.4%. Compared to a year earlier, producer prices rose by 9.7%, after 9.8% (revised from the initial + 9.7%) in December.
This is the biggest increase since these statistics were changed, i.e. since November 2010. At Piazza Affari, the shares of the banks were redeemed, after the sharp drops of the eve. The guard remains high on Unicredit (+ 2.13%), of which the board of directors met today, which, according to rumors, should also have taken stock of the leak of news regarding the interest in Banco Bpm (+2, 89%). Bper boasted an increase of 9.1%, since, after the agreement reached to take over 80% of Carige, it lays the foundations to become the third Italian banking center and strengthens its market share especially in Northern Italy . Intesa Sanpaolo also recorded an increase of 3% and Mediobanca of 2.26%.
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