The war is full of unconfirmed rumors that threaten to snowball. In the worst case, even real experts get hold of wrong information and share it, says social scientist John Helin.
Russian the offensive war was supposed to be short and victorious, and Kiev was believed to fall in three days. Now the fighting has continued for more than 300 days, and Ukraine continues to defend itself.
The rough turn of the year makes many in both Kyiv and the Kremlin hope for some kind of progress. At the end of December, rumors began to circulate that Russia was planning to withdraw from the city of Kreminna, which it captured in April in Luhansk.
Ukraine expert of John Helin according to which the claims are probably baseless.
“On the northwest side of the city, it is even possible that Russia has pushed Ukraine a little further west. In the forests of the southern side, Ukraine is probably close to the city, but the rumors of liberation have come from fairly unconfirmed sources,” says Helin in HS’s Ukraine studio.
Rintami hasn’t heard any big news in a while.
“We are still fighting in Bahmut and North Luhansk in many places from the same villages and towns. In other words, very similar to what has been happening for several months.”
On New Year’s Eve, Ukrainian soldiers loaded a 2S7 Pion cannon to fire at Russian positions in the city of Kreminna.
The destroyed bridge in Kreminta on December 4. Russia seized the city from Ukraine in April, and no definite signs of withdrawal have yet been seen.
Optimistic estimates often have a snowball effect when unconfirmed sources pile up.
“Usually, rumors like Kreminna’s start from a single piece of information, a rumor or a bad map drawing on a single channel. Then more and more less reliable sources pick up on it and start spreading it.”
After this, new commenters grab the sources without checking them. Soon the original sources see the rumors spreading and think there is more to it than that.
“At best, experts who can be taken seriously catch rumors and start sharing false information, after which it ends up in the media,” states Helin.
On Monday, Ukraine said that up to 400 Russian soldiers had been killed in an attack in Makijivka in the Donetsk region. Russia admitted the attack, but put the death toll at 63.
Neither claim could be confirmed.
“There is a contrast with the figure announced by Ukraine, which is usually the highest and best possible. Then there is Russia, which is trying to reduce these numbers.”
Read more: Russia admits that 63 soldiers died in the Ukrainian attacks in Makijivka, the use of mobile phones in the background
Russia has suffered embarrassing losses on its own soil as well. Last month to Engels Air Base there were even three attempts to strike, as a result of which Russia was reported to have taken its strategic bombers to safety.
The attacks 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border have raised doubts about Russia’s air defense capabilities.
“Russia may have restrictions in its own airspace to shoot down unidentified aircraft, that is, an order from above is expected, because one does not want to accidentally shoot down civil aviation or one’s own planes,” explains Helin.
Ukraine has also been able to use “homegrown” drones, whose radar reflectivity is lower than Soviet-era drones.
“The most important thing about these attacks is that Ukraine is capable of them. It forces Russia to change its operations and focus its air defense deeper into Russia,” sums up Helin.
“It takes resources directly from the front.”
An aerial photo taken by the satellite company Maxar on December 5 shows the Engels Air Base, where Russian strategic bombers are stationed. The base was the target of several attempted attacks in December.
Read more: Ukraine struck Engels for the second time deep in Russia – Sources: Some of the bombers were taken to safety in the Far East
Believe the Russian president has tried to be sworn in on the home front Vladimir Putinwho assured in his historically long New Year’s speech that the Russians’ sacrifices are not in vain.
Doctor of research Kristiina Silvan The foreign policy institute describes in HS’s Ukraine studio that the speech felt like a war general.
According to Silvan, in the speech, the iron wire was twisted that the war will continue and the support of the entire nation is needed. Silvan interprets that there are only a few genuine supporters of the war in Russia, about 17 percent of the population.
Read more: Putin broke all his records in his New Year’s speech, but even the Z people hardly believe a single lie
“We know from opinion polls that it is still not entirely clear to the Russians why the war is going on in Ukraine: are there neo-Nazis there or are we at war against the United States.”
At the same time, the speech filled a gap in Putin’s public appearances, which was cancelled at the end of the year. According to Silvan, a short speech is also easier for Putin, whose state of health has also been speculated about, than long television broadcasts.
“There won’t be any surprises.”
In Putin’s New Year’s speech, instead of the content, the attention of many viewers was drawn to the persons in military uniforms, who stood like a halo behind the president’s head.
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