Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine at the crossroads. Kiev, at war with Russia for over 950 days, has one of the last chances to hope for a turning pointget out of limbo and get concrete support for the implementation of his ‘Plan for Victory’. A crucial summit will take place at the German base in Ramstein on Friday 11 October: Zelensky will have a new chance to present his plan to the allies and convince them of the need for a further leap in quality in assistance to Kiev.
Ukraine remains heavily dependent on the US from the point of view of military armaments, but this support – less than a month before the elections for the White House – remains uncertain, while attention on the war is gradually waning, replaced by new escalation in the Middle East.
Zelensky and the chance after the (medium) US flop
Zelensky’s visit to Washington did not have the desired effects for the Ukrainian government. President Joe Biden – who is postponing his departure for Germany due to the emergency linked to Hurricane Milton – has not changed his mind on the ban on using long-range missiles supplied by the United States to strike on Russian territory.
Zelensky also found himself caught in a political crossfire and was criticized or snubbed by Republican leaders. The meeting with the GOP candidate for the White House, Donald Trump – the first since the beginning of the war – took place, but it took place hastily and after the tycoon had initially expressed his intention not to meet the Ukrainian president.
“No one is going to abandon Ukraine, but Ukraine is definitely not in the top three major issues for the United States right now,” said Mykola Davydiuk, a political expert in Kiev. This is why the meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, in which Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will also participate, takes on fundamental importance for Zelensky as, according to a Western diplomat, it could allow Ukraine to collect new forms of aid. Starting with the strengthening of its air defenses, the Ukrainian leader continues to press one key.
“It is important that the big countries that have the necessary weapons are really big in protecting life, not keeping these weapons somewhere in warehouses or depots,” Zelensky said on Telegram.
Zelensky’s demands
The president, in another post, specified that “it is not only about what we have already achieved or what we are currently producing, but also about proposals for our partners: investing in Ukrainian production, mainly in the creation of drones and electronic warfare systems. This is also part of our package for the next ‘Ramstein’ meeting.”
According to Zelensky, the determination of allies and the strengthening of Ukraine are what can stop Russian aggression. In the German base, however, the NATO countries – according to the Western diplomat – could also make new steps forward regarding guarantees on Ukraine’s future membership of the Alliance, although probably still below the level requested by the former Republic Soviet. The process for bringing Kiev into NATO has been at the center of hypotheses in recent days: the Financial Times has proposed a scenario, strictly ruled out by Zelensky, in which Ukraine’s rapprochement with NATO is accompanied by the transfer of territories to Russia.
At the moment, the main fear for Ukrainian officials is that the upcoming US presidential elections, and a new Administration regardless of their outcome, could cast doubt on Ukraine’s future security assistance.
Zelensky’s team tried to convince Biden to support the ‘Victory Plan’, also to guarantee Washington’s support regardless of who will be the new occupant of the White House. But the president is now unlikely to take any action that would be unpopular and jeopardize Kamala Harris’ campaign.
Meanwhile, Anton Grushetskyi, director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, claims that although Zelensky and his government continue to repeatedly rule out ceding portions of territory to Russia, which now occupies more than 20% of the country, opposition among the population continues to grow idea to make temporary compromises on territorial integrity in exchange for NATO membership or security guarantees from allies.
What happens at the front
Public sentiment in Ukraine, in fact, has changed over the past year. Citizens far from the front have had to deal with rolling blackouts due to Moscow’s bombing of the electricity grid. Russia has regained the initiative along the front, while the Ukrainian army is rushing to replenish its forces with a mobilization campaign.
The surprising incursion into Russia’s Kursk region over the summer provided a morale boost and it sounded like a declaration to allies that Ukraine is still capable of making gains on the battlefield. But that offensive has largely stalled, as Kiev’s forces continue to lose ground in the east. With the war appearing increasingly at a stalemate, support from Ukraine’s Western partners has also been more moderate. “In 2023 there were great hopes, but in 2024 there are many disappointments and it is not clear what will happen in the future – this is a fact,” said opposition MP Oleksiy Goncharenko.
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