“It seems that Russia is still holding the initiative,” says Ilmari Käihkö, a docent in military sciences.
RUSSIAN troops managed to seize the Ukrainian city center of Severodonetsk the night before Monday after more than a month of fighting.
The Ukrainian headquarters said on Monday morning that Russia had forced Ukraine to withdraw from the center with an attack backed by heavy artillery concentrations.
Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region Serhi Haidai told the news agency Reuters according to Monday that about 70 percent of the city would be Russian-owned. According to Haidai, with the destruction of the last bridge, it will be impossible to evacuate civilians and deliver humanitarian aid to the city.
Read more: Severodonetsk bridges destroyed, civilians left in the city and Ukrainian fighters killed
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi commented earlier that the fate of Donbas will be decided in Severodonetsk.
SWEDISH Docent of Military Sciences at the National Defense College Ilmari Käihkö however, does not believe that the fate of the Donbass region will be resolved in the fighting in Severodonetsk.
“However, Severodonetsk is just one city. The fighting is still going on and new opportunities – and therefore threats – will come for both sides of the war. ”
Although Käihkö does not believe that the fate of Donbas will be resolved in the fighting in Severodonetsk, he stresses the importance of the city for the fulfillment of Russia’s goals.
“Severodonetsk is the last city that Russia does not control in Luhansk – they will be forced to take control of the region if they intend to justify their war by taking over Donbass and protecting the People’s Republics.”
Käihkö considers it possible that if Russia succeeds in taking full control of Severodonetsk, Russia will direct its military operations towards the city of Lysychansk and the Donetsk region. He adds that he also considers it possible that Russia could move to a defensive position in these areas and concentrate its forces on the attack, for example in the direction of Kharkov or Kherson.
Cuckoo according to Donbas fighting, it can be concluded that Russia is able to determine where the Ukrainian army can concentrate its forces. He adds that if the counterattacks by the Ukrainian army had worked, the Ukrainians could have forced Russia to concentrate its forces elsewhere.
“It looks like Russia is still holding the initiative and will be able to tie up Ukrainian troops on a very long front line. The counter-attacks by the Ukrainians in Kherson did not progress – this suggests that they have little reserve left. If there had been troops, they could have forced Russia to withdraw troops south from elsewhere, such as Severodonetsk. ”
Käihkö states that the fighting in eastern Ukraine is in a situation where both sides of the war are taking an “operational break”. According to him, the situation is not favorable for Ukraine.
“Ukraine’s biggest fear is that the front lines will freeze. In that case, both sides can join forces, but Russia will succeed faster because it is a bigger state and will be able to launch a new attack faster if it so wishes. ”
Western countries arms deliveries have played a significant role in the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to strike. However, Kähkö sees that if the West had been able to deliver aid more quickly, the current situation in the war would have been different.
However, he does not believe that the West will be late in providing aid, although Ukraine hopes to receive much more aid than the West has agreed to provide.
“In hindsight, if Ukraine had received all the support before the war or in the first weeks of the war, the frontline situation would now look different. Yes, the West can influence the situation, and the Ukrainians would like to be even more affected. ”
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