The promised western main battle tanks arrive in Ukraine. Does this mean that Ukraine has the prerequisites for a spring offensive?
KIEV – In the Ukraine war, Russia has been trying to make progress for months. But the Ukrainian defense is holding up. Meanwhile, the promised deliveries of main battle tanks from the West have now arrived and strengthened the defenders militarily. Experts are expecting a counter-offensive by Ukraine in the spring – Russia’s nuclear threats at this point in time are probably no coincidence.
Western main battle tanks arrive in Ukraine: conditions laid for counter-offensive
About 30 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, Canada and Poland have already arrived in Ukraine. “Our tanks, as promised, arrived on time in the hands of our Ukrainian friends. I’m sure that they can do something important at the front,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) on Tuesday (March 28). In addition, Kiev also received other tank models, such as the Challenger 2 type from the United Kingdom. Western states had promised Ukraine a total of more than 40 modern main battle tanks and hundreds of reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced on Monday that Ukraine could launch a counter-offensive in April or May, depending on the weather. With the arrival of the equipment, the conditions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive were most likely created, it said in one Analysis by war experts Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Wednesday. However, according to the experts, there could be a delay between the arrival of the weapons and their use.
Putin Announces Nuclear Weapons Transfer to Belarus: Admission of Weakness?
Military experts have repeatedly emphasized that time is of the essence when it comes to arms deliveries. A military resurgence in Russia was expected due to the conversion to a war economy, the covert ongoing partial mobilization in the country and the restructuring of the leadership of the Russian military. Now the main battle tanks for Ukraine seem to have arrived in time, and Russia’s pressure to attack is apparently easing.
At the same time, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to create a nuclear threat by announcing last Saturday that he wanted to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. A spokeswoman for the Federal Foreign Office in Berlin called this a “further attempt at nuclear intimidation.” However, the assessment of the situation would not change as a result, added a spokesman for the Federal Ministry of Defense.
Russia’s threat is also seen by some as an admission that the Kremlin chief has no adequate response using conventional military means. US President Joe Biden called the statements made by Kremlin chief Putin about the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus “dangerous”.
Fighting in eastern Ukraine continues: According to military expert, Russia is “not in a good operational position”
Russia, meanwhile, continued its attacks in eastern Ukraine, aiming to completely conquer the Donetsk region. Combat operations are currently concentrated on Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. “In Bachmut it is still the case that the Russians are advancing from the north and are now turning in […] and there is also a threat to the supply road from the south of Bachmut,” analyzed ex-NATO general Erhard Bühler in his podcast on Tuesday. However, the defense of the Ukrainians in Bakhmut continues.
Meanwhile, a new focal point of the Russian attack was emerging in Avdiivka, and a shift of troops could also be observed. The city is about 13 kilometers north of Donetsk, the region’s Russian-controlled administrative center. For months, Russian forces had tried to capture the town of Bakhmut north of Avdiivka. “After many, many months one saw that Bachmut did not fall […]which is why the operational focus is being shifted further south,” says Bühler.
Overall, from the point of view of the military expert, Russia is not in a good operational situation. The Russian military and the Wagner Group are reportedly in urgent need of stockpiling of personnel and ammunition. “According to our estimates, Wagner lost more than 30,000 soldiers during the fighting in the Ukraine, of whom around 9,000 died,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. Russia has already announced that it will be called up in the spring. (Bettina Menzel)
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