Ukraine Missiles in Belarus, artillery drills, troop transfers: Satellite imagery and graphics seem to threaten the situation around Ukraine

European the security situation has raised growing concerns in the early part of the year. The mood tightened in December when Russia demanded a military alliance from NATO to end enlargement to new members and to reduce troops and armaments in NATO’s eastern member states. Russia highlighted in particular Ukraine, which it called for the NATO door to close.

Russia has stepped up its demands by deploying troops near the Ukrainian border, and the tense situation is feared to lead to an Russian invasion. The attack would have far-reaching consequences for the Baltic Sea region and Finland, for example.

The HS brought together what is known about the situation now and what is at stake in the interplay between Ukraine, Russia and the West.

Satellite imagery seems to be gaining ground

Russia has transferred troops to the vicinity of Ukraine in recent months. Troops have been transferred to Western Russia, the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and, most recently, Belarus.

According to the military alliance NATO, this is the largest deployment of Russian troops in Belarus since the end of the Cold War. According to the company, the satellite image transmitted and analyzed by the US company Maxar Technologies shows that ballistic missiles have also been imported to Belarus.

Estimates of the size of the troops deployed in the direction of Ukraine vary, but in general the strength is estimated at about one hundred thousand soldiers.

The message of Maxar, who analyzes satellite images, is that the activity and combat readiness of the Russian troops have increased.

The latest images taken at the turn of January – February show the transfer of troops to Ukraine and, among other things, traces of artillery firing.

Ukraine has depleted its armed forces, Russia has a reserve of millions of soldiers

Ukraine has improved its armed forces in recent years, but there is a long way to go for effective defense capabilities. Compared to Russia, the size of the armed forces is declining, as in most other countries. Russia, for example, has a reserve of about two million soldiers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, more than 1,100 combat aircraft and more than 2,800 combat tanks.

Ukraine was a major nuclear power state at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukraine surrendered its weapons to Russia for destruction, and the last silo was demolished in 2001. By 2014, the state of Ukraine’s armed forces had deteriorated and there was no capacity to defend Crimea.

Since 2014, for example, the United States has supported Ukraine’s defense procurement with more than $ 2.5 billion. The share of defense expenditure has increased significantly: in 2013 it was about 1.5 per cent and in 2020 it was already four per cent.

The occupation of Crimea in 2014 set the stage in motion

The state of war in Ukraine has lasted for eight years. The incidents began on February 27, 2014. At that time, the Crimean Peninsula Regional Parliament was invaded by gunmen who raised Russian flags.

The Crimean peninsula belonged to Ukraine, but the Russian majority lived there. One week earlier, protests in Ukraine had become violent. Parliament ousted the Russian-backed president Viktor Yanukovychand he fled to Russia.

More and more soldiers appeared in the Crimea, wearing deep green field uniforms. They began to be called “green men”. Ukraine accused Russia of armed occupation of Crimea. President of Russia Vladimir Putin claimed the gunmen were local self-defense forces.

In March 2014, a referendum was held in Crimea on joining Russia. According to Russia, 96.77 percent of the Crimean peninsula wanted to leave Ukraine and join Russia. The UN General Assembly condemned the outcome of the vote.

The full-scale war in eastern Ukraine began in May 2014, when Russian-backed separatists seized Donetsk airport. The state of war continues in the Donbass region and the ceasefire is constantly being violated.

The map below shows the difficult stages of Ukraine’s recent history. Tap an image to switch between it.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has a long history

The Russia-Ukraine conflict goes back a long way in history. The twists and turns of the Novorossiya region north of the Black Sea are linked to both the Russian war with the Ottomans and the Russian Revolution.

The Novorossiysk region is located north of the Black Sea. It is largely in the territory of present-day Ukraine. Since the occupation of Crimea in Russia in 2014, the name “Novorossiya” or New Russia has been used for the eight southern and eastern provinces of Ukraine, which many consider to be Russian in Russia for historical reasons. The cities of the region are Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Luhansk and Kharkiv.

The territory of Novorossiya was annexed to the Soviet Republic of Ukraine, established in 1919. Russia had originally conquered the territories in a war against the Ottomans Empress Catherine II’s during the 18th century. That’s when the area was called Novorossiya.

Russian President Putin has referred to history on several occasions when talking about the region. In this way, he seeks to justify action in Ukraine.