Ukraine launches an incursion into Russia that Vladimir Putin’s troops have been unable to stop. How much does the advance affect the Russians?

“The war has come. All our relatives left for Moscow because it is so scary,” one woman told foreign correspondents in Russia While waiting at a train station for loved ones who had evacuated in recent days to arrive Kursk regionin the west of the country.

In that area that borders with Ukrainethe Four days ago, Kiev troops launched an incursion with small assault groups accompanied by six armored vehicles in what is believed to be the largest attack on Russian territory in the nearly two and a half years since the start of the invasion in February 2022.

According to analysts, It is not entirely clear how much the Ukrainian army will be able to achieve with this military operation.especially when the epicentre of the conflict remains in eastern Ukraine. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense He said he had to send troops to repel the attack, some 3,000 people have been evacuated and some experts suggest that this is a test of fire for the President Vladimir Putin.

“The substantial advances of Ukraine within Russia “They would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security and geopolitical resurgence,” the statement wrote. Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank

What is known about the Ukrainian advances in Russia?

Although Ukraine has not officially assumed authorship, the President Volodymyr Zelensky On Thursday, he said that Russians were now also facing the misfortunes of war. “Russia brought war to our country and should feel” its effects, he said, without mentioning the raid directly.

According to ISW, around 1,000 Ukrainian troops have penetrated up to 35 kilometres into Russian territory. The incursion represents an unexpected setback for the Kremlin, which has recorded significant victories in eastern Ukraine in recent months. President Putin denounced a “large-scale provocation” and the country’s top general vowed to crush the incursion.

Authorities also confirmed that kyiv troops had reached the town of Sudzha, about ten kilometres from the border. The town, of 5,500 inhabitants, It is key to sending gas to countries in the European Union through Ukraine.

The Ukrainian advance has been corroborated by Russian military bloggers and the Rybar Telegram channel, considered close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

According to Rybar, Ukraine employs a rapid advance tactic with small assault groups of up to six armored vehicles that bypass Russian positions and enter nearby towns for searches.after which they abandon them, creating the impression of a major offensive.

This tactic allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to achieve their main goal: to spread panic and enter an operational space where there are no previously prepared positions.

“This tactic allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve their main goal: to spread panic and enter an operational space where there are no pre-prepared positions,” the channel added, adding that in order to stop the enemy, it will be necessary to heavily mine possible routes of their advance.

The magnitude of the Ukrainian attack is confirmed by the data offered today by the Russian military command, which declared that the Ukrainian forces They have suffered 945 casualties and lost more than a hundred armored vehicles since the beginning of the incursion.

Russia has announced the dispatch of reinforcements to the Kursk region and is using artillery and aviation to contain Ukrainian troops.

How much can Ukraine achieve with these attacks?

Criticism of the authorities’ response and their failure to stop Ukrainian forces has spread on Russian social media. Some opposition activists, such as Ilya Yashin, recently exchanged with the West, have blamed the Russian deaths in Kursk on Putin and his decision to invade Ukraine.

The operation has already had positive military effects for Ukraine, according to Oleksi Melnik, a security expert at the Razumkov think tank and former assistant to the defence minister, who spoke to Efe.

“If Russia moves significant forces from the front, this will make the Kursk operation much more efficient than if we had simply added several hundred or thousand troops to our defences,” he stressed.

Still, the raid has encouraged hope and optimism at a time when good news from the front has been scarce, which affects not only Ukrainians but also Westwhere it had begun to become clear that Ukraine is slowly losing territory and the war as a whole, notes “Frontelligence”.

Analysts also highlight the excellent execution of the operation, which began in complete secrecy and took the enemy completely by surprise, unlike last summer’s counteroffensive, which was announced well in advance.

However, American sources consulted by the newspaper The New York Timeshave said privately “that they received no prior information about this operation” and “that they are still seeking clarity on its logic and rationale.”

“Officials said they understood kyiv’s need to change the optics and narrative of the war, but were skeptical that Ukraine could hold territory long enough to force Russia to divert significant forces from the offensives it is waging in eastern and southern Ukraine,” the article written by the New York newspaper says.

Russia continues to put pressure on Ukraine

Despite this incursion, in the Ukrainian region of Sumy, bordering Kursk, the Ukrainian police indicated that “around 20,000 people need to be evacuated” from 28 localities due to the Russian attacks.

In Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, at least 14 people were killed and 43 injured in an attack on a supermarket in the town of Kostiantynivka, according to the latest assessment by emergency services.

“Russia will be held accountable for this terror,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

An AFP team at the scene saw dozens of people fleeing the area.

Regional governor Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram that about 50 people were in the supermarket when the bombing occurred and that rescuers were searching for possible victims in the rubble.

Filashkin had previously reported that four other civilians were killed in Russian airstrikes in the region.