Kiev is now clearly aiming for victory. A video is supposed to prove that airborne units have made another breakthrough – where exactly remains a secret.
Kiev – “We must not lose the next few months to war in order not to lose the next decades,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky; he is currently in the USA to discuss his “victory plan” against Vladimir Putin’s invading army with President Joe Biden. At the same time, Ukrainian troops appear to want to bring more Russian territory under their control. The place of the border crossing is secret.
Units of the 95th separate Polissia air assault brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces have broken through a section of the Russian border, writes the Ukrainian PravdaThis is the second successful operation to cross into the Russian Federation since the beginning of the operation in the Kursk district. The source of the information is a video that is said to have been published by the communications office of the Ukrainian air assault command and also on youtube can be seen.
Propaganda video: Drone footage claims to prove coup against Putin
The drone video lasts 94 seconds, but is of little use as evidence for the claims of a strike against Putin. Pravda writes that the images show “the breaching of technical barriers, the advance of airborne units into Russian territory and the first clashes in the border area, in which Ukrainian tanks attack a Russian base.” For experienced military analysts, this may be true, but for the public, the video seems to have more of a propaganda purpose. The invasion of Russian territory gives the war a new dynamic, Nigel Gould-Davies wrote in mid-August about the Ukrainian advance into Kursk.
“Russia sees itself as a great power. But great powers do not lose territory. If you lose territory, you are not a great power.”
“Both sides are making decisions that involve high risks. Ukraine believes it can use some of its best forces for this occupation without allowing Russian troops to break through into Donbass. Russia believes it can contain the invasion without diverting significant forces from its offensive,” the analyst at the Thinktank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) summarized.
Both in combination must be wrong, he claims. And yet: According to the video, Ukraine is continuing the pinprick tactic; apparently even with almost the best units at their disposal. Since the first week of the invasion in the Kursk district, parts of two strong and battle-tested air assault brigades have been at the front to support the 80th Brigade, which was deployed first: the 82nd and the 95th Air Assault Brigade. The latter is now said to have led the current border crossing into Russia.
Kursk as an affront: Selenskyj wants to put pressure on Putin with border crossings
Apparently, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is keen to put pressure on the Russian president personally. The irony of the first invasion, or now the supposed second border crossing, is that Putin came to power after starting a war in Chechnya to restore sovereignty over Russian territory, as Gould-Davies claims: “Having made the restoration of a strong state the watchword of his presidency, he now governs a country that has once again lost control of its territory.”
This could possibly be the third attempt by Ukraine to penetrate Russia’s border. At the end of August, the British Times reported that Ukraine had attempted to breach the border near Belgorod. Telegram-Channel Mash reported that around 200 Ukrainian soldiers and armored personnel carriers had attacked the border crossing at Nekhoteevka. The video of the breakthrough that had now apparently taken place, however, looked more like a commando operation.
Pictures for the world: Selenskyj demonstrates determination with his offensives
At least the video signals one thing: determination. Ukrainian President Volodoymyr Selenskyj had already demonstrated this again in early August when his units rolled across the border with Russia: “Now we must all act with the same unity and effectiveness that we showed in the first weeks and months of this war – when Ukraine seized the initiative and began to turn the tide in our favor. We have done it again and proven that Ukrainians can achieve their goals, defend their interests and protect their independence in any situation,” he said on X (formerly Twitter), as described by the British telegraph quoted.
As the British Guardian At the beginning of September, based on voices from Sudzha, the Ukrainian soldiers were in no way interested in annexing foreign territory. According to this, the information situation among the locals who remained behind was also thin, and the Ukrainian soldiers had to explain the situation to them. It is possible that no resident in the corner of Russia that is now being attacked is prepared for the possibility of war returning, let alone that it has even begun. Public knowledge or even criticism is what the Kremlin wanted and wants to avoid.
Testimony to Russia’s weakness: Ukraine wants to accelerate Putin’s loss of credibility
The video would be the counter strategy. The drone footage of more extensive image material is probably just the “civilian part” with which Ukraine wants to stir up sentiment. Analyst Gould-Davies is also convinced that since the attack at Kursk at the latest Putin must address his loss of credibility among the population“While he believes that Ukraine is seeking to ‘destroy the unity, the cohesion, of Russian society,’ his failure to mobilise public opinion in response suggests that he may lack faith in that cohesion,” Gould-Davies writes.
If the current border breach is true and has gone beyond a minor skirmish, then Vladimir Putin would have to be accused of having lost control of his borders. This in turn could have serious consequences for his regime. Four weeks ago, the news agency Reuters reported on the attempted border crossing near Belgorod and on worried Russian officials.
“Situation remains critical”: Russian administration chief admits loss of sovereignty
“Our situation remains difficult,” said Vyacheslav Gladkov. The regional governor and thus the highest administrative representative in the western region of Belgorod had reported at the time of nighttime artillery shelling and drone attacks on three settlements in the area. More important in this context: Since the foiled attack on Belgorod, the neighboring Russian regions have been prepared for the possibility of further attacks, he said. Reuters and made the loss of sovereignty a possibility.
In this respect, Ukraine should not be allowed to break through the border again. At least not without massive fire support, but there is no trace of this in the video – on the contrary, the attack appears to be led only by the BTR-3DA battlefield support vehicle, an infantry fighting vehicle with a 90-millimeter cannon. The larger caliber shells fired may have come from the 9K35 “Strela-10” which was actually intended as an anti-aircraft tank – in any case, the video does not show a T-80 battle tank, which the 95th Air Assault Brigade is using according to the magazine Military Land should be equipped.
As the magazine Euromaidan Press As reported in mid-July, the 95th Air Assault Brigade was still stationed in the Pokrovsk area as a support unit because it is “often used by the Ukrainian command to stabilize critical situations,” as Euromaidan Press They were supposed to organize a counterattack and push the Russians back. Having this unit operate on Russian territory now seems highly explosive. In mid-August, the British Times speculated about what Ukraine ultimately intends to hold in its hands.
Sign of overestimation: “Russia sees itself as a great power” – wrongly
Military analysts are said to have observed that the Ukrainian forces are fortifying the more than 600-kilometer-long front line in Kursk – which, in their opinion, would only make their situation worse because their decimated strength could overstretch the front. An advantage for Russia; but at the same time also a weakening, says Times Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine: “Russia sees itself as a great power. But great powers do not lose territory. If you lose territory, you are not a great power.”
According to the TimesAccording to defense correspondent George Grylls, Ukraine must expect that it may have to pay a high price for the defense of this patch of the Russian Empire if Russia does decide to go on the offensive: “It would be a nightmare for Kiev if Ukrainian elite troops were trapped in Russia and exposed to devastating counterattacks,” writes Grylls.
This is also the view of John Foreman, the former British military attaché in Moscow, as described by Times quoted: “I hope they don’t try to hold on to it. Because then they would get beaten up and it would be a Pyrrhic victory.”
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