Ukraine, strong winds of war: but for Russia and China it is the US that wants the conflict
The winds of war on Ukraine they blow hard, but it’s not entirely clear who is blowing the most. While Europe and Italy are afraid of being left in the dark, without the necessary gas supplies. With trade associations that estimate the losses caused by the European sanctions against Russia in the billions. Moscow and Beijing feed a narrative according to which Washington would be looking for the confrontation to ruin the Xi Jinping Winter Olympic Games (starting on February 4th) and to try to create a rift between the two main rivals. And, while the businesses Italians (as written a few days ago by Affaritaliani) meet Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron prepares to speak with the Russian president to try to avoid the worst.
READ ALSO: Russia: challenge to Europe also from the South. Putin meets Italian companies
Let’s start from the field. Not everyone is sure that war is imminent, as Washington explicitly stated. For example, Kiev Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba argues that Moscow “wants to sow panic” but “it lacks some important military indicators and systems for conducting such a large-scale offensive. “The same thing that other Ukrainian observers claim. In Kiev and the surrounding area they are convinced that the most probable scenario is that of a slow and mobile segment war like that of recent years and that the large-scale invasion that everyone is talking about is not as close as the Western media would suggest.
Russian infantry and fleet on alert
Meanwhile, US and UK continue to threaten sanctions: London has already announced that it will present a new package of economic measures, while Joe Biden has even feared personal sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin. A move that would obviously mean a total break with the Kremlin. From him, Moscow continues to transfer vehicles and men to the border with Ukraine. For example, units of the 150th Mechanized Infantry Division of the Southern Military District of Russia, with over a thousand soldiers, were placed on alert in the Rostov region. While the Russian Navy ordered the departure of the Northern Fleet for an exercise in the Barents Sea and placed on alert there Caspian flotilla, also on alert for deployment in Dagestan. The flotilla will carry out a series of maneuvers that will involve 6,000 men, with the support of air vehicles, in order to verify their preparation for combat.
One of the main hubs could turn out to be the Belarus, where Russia continues to relocate Sukhoi Su-35 fighters from the Far East. All in preparation for the Union Resolve 2022 exercise, which could be a useful opportunity for a prolonged stay of Moscow’s military vehicles in the neighboring country. Yes, because a constitutional referendum and Putin could also accommodate requests for Aleksandr Lukashenko and leave a contingent in place to avoid the risks of a new crisis like the recent one in Kazakhstan.
Ukraine, the role of Belarus between Russian troops and Polish walls
There PolandMeanwhile, he announced that he had started operations for building a border wall with Belarus, which according to the Warsaw government wants to maintain a “creeping” tension on the border, the use of migrants. Lukashenko among other things, he announced the dispatch of an “entire contingent of the Belarusian army” to the border with Ukraine. ” It has nothing to do with the occupation, but it is about protecting our southern border, ” he explained, as ” the Ukrainians have started amassing troops there. And I don’t understand why. ” Washington has already told Minsk that there will be consequences if it helps Russia invade Ukraine.
But Russia and China they feed the narrative that the United States wants the conflict. The description of the facts is completely overturned compared to that of the Western media. In all communications from the Kremlin, the impossibility of standing still in the face of possible Western actions is emphasized. According to the foreign minister Sergej Lavrov the West is pushing Kiev to “direct provocations” against Russia. “It would be enough to mention the increasingly provocative military exercises held on our borders, the attraction of the Kiev regime into the NATO orbit, its supply with nuclear weapons and the push towards direct provocations against the Russian Federation”, Lavrov said. as “particularly cynical” the request to stop Russia’s exercises in its territory.
The counter-narrative of Russia and China: “The US wants war to separate us and ruin the Beijing Olympics”
China also shares one counter-narrative according to which the US would be the real actors in search of a conflict. According to this hypothesis, the attempt would be to obfuscate the Beijing Olympic Games (Washington’s real number one rival) and at the same time creating a rift between Putin and Xi. China has in fact asked the Kremlin to wait for March for any operations and would experience an immediate invasion as a kind of betrayal. United States agents provocateurs to split the Sinorussian alliance in the bud? Beijing has suspicion or at least shows it does. Hoping that the Ukrainian situation does not divert attention from its Winter Olympic Games.
In all this, as often happens, Europe observes. Even if this time he tries to act himself. At least he tries Emmanuel Macronwho on Friday will speak on the phone with Putin trying to lower tensions and relaunch the dialogue in the context of the so-called Normandy format, which also includes Berlin and Kiev. A difficult undertaking, but it is still clear to everyone that the three main European countries (France, Germany and Italy) are much more timid than the rest of the continent on Russia. This is also or above all due to the energy dependence on Moscow.
Ukraine, the gas node takes away the sleep of Europe and Italy
Yes, because there is always a gas knot that keeps Europe and Italy from sleeping. Between Azerbaijan and Qatar, they look at alternatives for the supply chain and diversification than dependency in Moscow. In recent days, for example, the United States has been holding talks with the Qatar and other large gas exporters to plan emergency measures in the event that a Russian invasion of Ukraine cuts off supplies to Europe. These contacts, focused on the possibility of securing additional shipments of liquefied natural gas by sea, have now become urgent after the security negotiations between Washington and Moscow in recent days have produced minimal progress. Also because the supplies of Gazprom guarantee the 40% needs of the Union Brussels tries to cure addiction, but the transition takes a long time. It also speaks to a strengthening of the Tap which arrives in Puglia to increase the volume of gas transported from Azerbaijan, even if the TAP would not be able at the moment to play a decisive role in reducing dependence on Moscow.
And the problem goes beyond the energetic aspect. For instance Coldiretti lets know that the price of the grain increased by 10%. Not only. Coldiretti herself makes it known that the Made in Italy agri-food exports to Russia have lost 1.5 billion in the last seven and a half years due to the embargo decided by Putin with decree no. 778 of 7 August 2014, and since then always extended, as a response to the sanctions decided by the European Union, the USA and other countries for the Ukraine affair. There are those who underline that political and geopolitical moves cannot be driven only by commercial interests. But in the meantime the bill for the Italians risks being steep.
READ ALSO:
Ukraine, total war or Georgia scenario? Xi tries to stop Putin. Scenarios
Crisis Ukraine, not only gas increases: “Wheat will cost 10% more”
Ukraine, Putin wants a puppet. More gas from Qatar but the EU depends on Moscow
#Ukraine #China #conspiracy #gas #terror #Italy #lost #billion