Between the coronavirus, high inflation rates and his low popularity ratings, Joe Biden’s presidency in the United States was already going through a turbulent sea that had him very close to shipwreck.
This week, to top it off, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unleashed a huge new storm that will undoubtedly define his remaining years in the White House. For better or worse.
(We recommend: Minute by minute of the situation in Ukraine)
The president, in coordination with his European allies, announced a set of economic sanctions that were described as the most robust in history and whose purpose is to strangle Moscow, depriving it of the capital it needs to finance itself.
At the same time, he embarked -with the West- on a whole diplomatic campaign that seeks to isolate Vladimir Putin and raise the political cost of his military intervention.
But at the same time, the American president he made it clear that there are limits to his response as well as red lines that he hopes are not crossed.
First of all, Biden ruled out any direct role for US troops. in the Ukrainian conflict. Not only because he is not interested in a direct confrontation with Moscow that could unleash World War III, but because he knows that in his country there is no appetite for such a challenge.
That said, he was also emphatic that the US will use all of its military might to protect NATO member states if Russia does not stop in Ukraine and continues its advance towards nations that were part of the former Soviet Union.
“The United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of our country. There can be no doubt that we will honor our Article 5 commitment, which says that an attack on one is an attack on all,” he said. the president only hours after the missiles began to fall.
The United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of our country. There can be no doubt.
Both positions, of course, reflect the political realities that exist in your country. But also a calculation against the impact that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will have on his young presidency.
Historically, external conflicts tend to strengthen the president of the day, since the population tends to unify against a common enemy. To put the closest example, George W Bush he reached the White House in 2000 with less than half the popular vote and thanks to the controversial result in Florida, which gave him the minimum Electoral College votes he needed to succeed.
But after terrorist attacks on Washington and New York, a year later, his popularity reached 80 percent and then he won re-election in 2004 in the wake of the war in Iraq, which he launched in 2003.
In that sense, many analysts think that Biden could benefit from the Ukraine crisis and the resurgence of the confrontation with Russia.
In addition, the rival in this case is Moscow, an enemy that needs no introduction in the imagination of the Americans because it immediately transports them to the Cold War.
And some of that has already begun to happen. This week many Republican legislators closed ranks around the president – among them former President Bush – and the Democrats took advantage of the crisis to ask for the unification of the country.
“In this moment we are together and we need to be even more united on the steps to follow. Put all the sanctions at our disposal. Do not limit yourself. Putin is a bad guy and he must be stopped,” said Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republicans. in the Senate.
The unification of the country
Both parties, in fact, have found in the Ukrainian conflict a point in common – strange in the current political climate that exists in Washington – and
They are working on a bill to grant more funds and military resources to this country.
Biden, who had been in the doldrums in the polls and facing a furious opposition that has slowed his entire legislative agenda, suddenly has an issue that gives him oxygen and distracts opinion from other moles, such as rampant inflation and the fight against the coronavirus, which has been wearing down his political capital.
The crisis, on the other hand, coincides with the so-called State of the Union address, which is this Tuesday, and in which Biden will undoubtedly seek to unify the country around the existential challenge posed by Russia.
But there is another school of thought according to which the conflict will not provoke the kind of reaction that was common in the past. Okay, Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, “Most Americans see the war in Ukraine as something very distant happening in Europe and it doesn’t feel like an attack on the heart of the country, like 9-11 was. And it’s going to be hard to convince them that this is a war that affects their interests”.
At least for now.
By the way, the repudiation that Republicans feel for Biden is such that not even a possible war with Russia could bring them closer.
A recent Yougov poll, conducted before the invasion, said that while 80 percent in this party had an unfavorable opinion of the president, only 50 percent thought the same of Putin.
Additionally, the Republican Party today is not the same as it was in the past. In fact, according to Muni Jensen, a senior analyst at the Albright Stonebridge Group, they are very divided on foreign policy.
There is a faction, the most classic, that sees Russia as public enemy number one and fears that its influence will spread not only in Europe but also in Latin America, its backyard.
But there is another, more isolationist, who does not believe that the US should interfere in these matters and instead praises the autocratic characteristics of the Russian president. Among them Trump, who this week labeled him a “genius” and continues to weigh heavily on the party’s bases.
His comments drew criticism even from former officials in his administration, such as National Security Adviser HR McMaster. But many others avoided confronting him because of the influence he still wields.
William Galston, professor of public policy at the University of Maryland, also believes that the foreign policy challenges pale in comparison to the problem of inflation, the main concern of Americans because it affects their pockets.
Given that one of the collateral effects of the war in Ukraine will be higher gasoline prices and more disruptions to production chains, the high cost of living will most likely end up dominating the domestic agenda and playing against the interests of Biden and the Democrats.
unpredictable ending
Of course, the political fate of the president will depend on how the conflict in Eastern Europe evolves.
In an editorial published by the newspaper New York Times, former secretary of state Madeleine Albright say what Putin is making a “historic mistake” that will leave his country a pariah in the international community.
“Instead of a path to greatness, by invading Ukraine Putin is leaving his country isolated diplomatically, with an economy in shambles, and strategically vulnerable to a Western alliance that will come out stronger.” says the former undersecretary.
According to Albright, NATO will most likely respond by strengthening its eastern flank, setting up permanent military bases in Poland and the Baltic states.
Meanwhile, Putin will have to deal with an armed resistance in the Ukraine that will be financed by the West, and it will end up costing him a lot.
Riedel, the Brookings expert, actually speculates that Ukraine could become Putin’s Afghanistanalluding to the disastrous military intervention of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
If something like this materializes – a rejuvenated NATO, with Russia isolated and in economic crisis – Biden could get away with it without firing a single shot.
But not everyone sees it that way. Robert Kagan, an Asia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes the opposite is coming. That is, a more powerful Russia that will put an end to the global order that emerged from World War II.
“The map of Europe has undergone many changes over the centuries. Its current form reflects the expansion of American power and the collapse of Russian power from the 1980s to the present day; the next one will probably reflect the rebirth of Russian military power and the receding of American influence”says Kagan after warning that NATO will probably be forced to renegotiate its presence in countries of the former Soviet Union.
Deep down nobody knows which way the coin will fall. What is clear is that Biden’s fate is inexorably tied to the outcome of the current crisis.
SERGIO GÒMEZ MASERI
Correspondent of THE TIME
Washington
On Twitter @sergom68
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