The province of Buenos Aires concentrates “the” fight of the elections 2021 And, in accordance with that expectation, it is the one that shoots the most polls. Clarion now accessed two new vote intention studies in the Buenos Aires district, which consolidate trends already shown by other surveys: the Frente de Todos takes an advantage over Together for Change that does not reach two digits and Diego Santilli appears above Facundo Manes in the most important internal of the opposition coalition.
The works that show this scenario are from the consulting firms D’Alessio IROL – Berensztein and the National University of La Matanza (UNLM). In the first case, it is a pair of firms that have worked together for years: D’Alessio IROL, more related to the world of consumption and business, and Berensztein, of the well-known analyst who bears that surname. Refering to UNLM, dependent on the national government, the collection and processing of data does Projection, a relatively new consultancy on the market.
40 days from STEP September 12, analysts and leaders are quite cautious with these forecasts. They do well: pollsters come from a general blunder in the 2019 elections, particularly in the province of Buenos Aires, where no one I foresaw such a bulky victory (with a gap of about 15 points) of the Fernández on Macri-Pichetto in the presidential election nor, in particular, of Axel Kicillof on María Eugenia Vidal for governor.
Advantage of the ruling party, but not so wide
The study of the UNLM included a provincial survey of 1,260 cases, between July 25 and 28, with +/- 2.8% margin of error. Before entering the purely electoral chapter, the poll asks conjuncture questions. With these highlights:
– The two main problems for Buenos Aires residents are linked to the economy: “Inflation / food prices” take 34.5% of the responses and “Unemployment / stay out of work / low wages”, 19.2 %.
– 53.1% “disapprove of the way the National Government is managing the economy” while 55.6% “approve of the way the National Government is managing the Pandemic.”
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is the leader with the best image differential in the Province. Macri, the worst.
– Of the national leaders, the best image differential in the Province is held by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, with 49.4% positive and 43.2% negative. And the worst, Mauricio Macri, with + 33.8% and -62.9%.
– Of the main Buenos Aires candidates, the best differential is shown by Diego Santilli, with 39% positive and 31.3% negative. And the worst, José Luis Espert, with + 22.9% and -43.8%.
– Victoria Tolosa Paz, head of the list of the Frente de Todos, is the one that ends with the highest level of ignorance among her potential voters (27.9%).
Then, the poll gets right into the intention to vote. And from there three great conclusions can be drawn.
1) The Frente de Todos has an advantage over Juntos por el Cambio, but clearly less than the 15 points of 2019. The Tolosa Paz-Gollán duo reaches 37.5% against 30.3% between Santilli-Ocaña and Manes -Tavela, the two variants of JxC.
Until now, most of the Buenos Aires polls showed this trend: gap in favor of the ruling party, but short. In the last month, Clarín agreed to 12 provincial polls, including that of the UNLM: seven put the FdT above, four JxC and one gives a tie. With a plus for the Government: when they project undecided, they tend to go more for the ruling party than for the opposition.
2) In the internship of Together for Change, Santilli is again above Manes. Something similar to what was shown by four other previous surveys that Clarín was able to analyze. Although the advantage that the UNLM gives him is one of the widest: 20.9% of the former Buenos Aires deputy chief against 9.4% of the radical neuroscientist.
3) For now, there doesn’t seem to be much room for a third force. In the UNLM study, if 13.5% undecided and 6.5% target / challenged are removed, 80 points remain to be distributed. And between the two poles of the crack they take 67.8%. Of the rest, the best is Espert, with 5.7%. Below are Florencio Randazzo (4%), Nicolás del Caño (1.5%) and Cynthia Hotton (1%).
Floors and ceilings of the main candidates
The work of D’Alessio IROL – Berensztein, based on a survey of 1,000 cases, analyzed what is known as the electoral floors and ceilings of the main candidates in the Province. It is based on four variants of voting intention, around each figure: “I would surely vote for it” (floor), “I would probably vote for it” (added to the previous one, they determine the ceiling), “I would probably not vote for it” and “surely not I would vote for it “(rejection).
In the sum of the first two parameters (ceiling), three candidates from Together for Change were at the top. Again with Santilli a little better than Manes.
Manes and Santilli. In the JxC duel in Province, the polls give the former Buenos Aires deputy chief a little better.
Santilli added 23% of “surely …” and 22% of “probably …”; Manes 16% and 27%; and Graciela Ocaña (second on the list of the former Buenos Aires deputy chief), 25% and 17%.
Below is another trio, but from the Frente de Todos: Daniel Arroyo (25% of “surely …” and 12% of “probably …”), Tolosa Paz (23% and 14%) and Gollán (26% and 10%).
– Margarita Stolbizer (from the Manes list): 9% of “surely …” and 21% of “probably …”.
– Carolina Píparo (from Espert’s list): 9% and 17%.
– José Luis Espert: 4% and 18%.
– Florencio Randazzo 3% and 17%.
– Nicolás del Caño: 3% and 11%.
– Carolina Castro (from Randazzo’s list): 1% and 7%.
Seen from the other side, the greatest rejection (“surely I would not vote for it”) are from Del Caño (56%), Espert (54%) and Randazzo (49%). Again, as in the previous study, the insertion for third alternatives seems to be complicated. At least in the big fight.