Turnaround for Putin? Cell phones reveal too much – and Russia's troops control the radio

There is a stalemate on the ground. In the space of electromagnetic waves, Russia's army appears to have an advantage: it dominates electronic warfare in the Ukraine war.

Kiev – “The next war will only be fought in cyber space,” said Sönke Neitzel in the middle of last year. Germany's best-known military historian repeated this sentence as the dominant thesis of previous expert panels.

Basis of the assessment: findings from almost a year and a half of war. So the knowledge that a catastrophe like the Ukraine war came earlier than feared, and is actually being fought on the ground as ever and primarily man to man – but already largely digitally. Therefore, the thesis is still correct – and, even worse: Russia is preparing to leave its opponent behind in electronic warfare.

So far, Vladimir Putin's troops in Ukraine have been viewed as inflexible and poorly led. However, more recent studies paint a different picture. Accordingly, the Russian army has learned something new. The Ukrainian armed forces have succeeded “in an unprecedented way” in condensing data from civil and military sources into current situation reports in order to then use them against the invaders from Russia, says Colonel Tim Zahn in the Bundeswehr podcast Inquired.

“Due to the amount of data, significant time savings were achieved, which always play an important role in a military context,” said the head of the Bundeswehr’s Center for Cyber ​​Security. That's why the convoys came to a standstill and why the Russian artillery fired so poorly. That's why Ukraine had the upper hand in the counteroffensive. The problem: The Russians have now copied that.

Ukraine's losses: 10,000 drones per month

The Ukrainian military has been very effective with GPS-guided weapons, including Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, guided multiple rockets fired from HIMARS launchers, and M982 Excalibur 155mm artillery shells, reported Business Insider.

According to the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) However, the Russian military is making increasing use of jamming transmitters to prevent aircraft from communicating on the battlefield. This primarily refers to the electronic combat of drones, which are mainly used for enemy reconnaissance. This results in a loss rate of approximately 10,000 Ukrainian drones per month; That means more than 300 drones per day, write the study authors. Ukraine is beginning to go blind on the battlefield.

But the artillery performance of the Russian aggressors has also increased, as Jack Watling from RUSIThink tank claims. According to his expertise, the Russians have now developed the ability to engage Ukrainian artillery positions with return fire within just two minutes of their first shot. Previously, the Russian soldiers had needed between five and twenty minutes to counterattack. Apparently this was not achieved through the introduction of new systems, but simply because the Russians streamlined the process: the firing artillery forces were apparently given direct access to the target location capabilities required for this.

Ukraine's new guns: effectiveness limited – soldiers scout on foot again

In return, the Ukrainian artillery could now lose some of its effectiveness – their new wonder weapon FH-77BW L52 Archer (Archer) is a self-propelled gun made in Sweden with a caliber 155 mm artillery gun and shoots the intelligent Excalibur ammunition, thus achieving results even an enormous range of around 50 kilometers. What could degenerate into pure chance hits in the future: The Russians can transmit ammunition or drones incorrect target coordinates due to incorrect signals. Worse still for Ukraine: The West does not seem keen to help Ukraine, as sensitive technology could fall into the hands of the enemy. The West mostly keeps its military secrets to itself. Electronic warfare basically means three things:

• Disrupting the enemy's communication and navigation and thereby confusing him;
• sending false signals to distract weapons from the target;
• Taking control of the weapons.

For the The New Zurich Times The tide turned in Ukraine when the Russians dug in after the stalled counteroffensive: “Russia invested in electronic warfare before the war. The systems that locate and disrupt the enemy have only really been effective since the Russian army defended the occupied territories.” Loud NZZ Military bloggers are increasingly reporting on Ukrainian two-man squads that have advanced through complicated Russian blocking positions to obtain intelligence. Apparently they have lost confidence in their communications technology; The Russians, on the other hand, seem to have achieved sovereignty over electromagnetic space, like that NZZ writes.

Russia is retrofitting jammers: one station every ten kilometers

The RUSI Russia's army now actually sees itself better positioned: a larger disruption system should be set up every ten kilometers along the front, each seven kilometers away from the main battle line. The platforms are primarily aimed at drone defense, write the two authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds. They see electronic warfare as barely synchronized with other activities on the battlefield, which is why Russian troops are still far from reaching their potential effectiveness.

According to them, a particular focus of the Russian interception and jamming troops is on deciphering Ukrainian tactical radio traffic. This enables Russia to monitor communications via Ukrainian Motorola radios virtually in real time or ev
en to suppress them up to ten kilometers behind the battle line.

For both opponents, drone defense is an undertaking with many unknowns – and will soon extend into the electronic circuits. First of all, drone defense means making the smallest aircraft visible. For the eye or the radar. Because most of the current drones fly with parts from hardware stores, they are very sensitive to radio interference, British drone expert Steve Wright told the portal Newsweek. This also applies, for example, to the Shahed drone used on a massive scale by Russia and especially to the various Ukrainian do-it-yourself drones.

Ukraine is slowly losing its reputation as a drone power

According to a study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), hundreds of different drone systems are said to be in use in Ukraine; A lot of it is hardware store goods. According to Wright, defense strategies against drones are currently being worked on feverishly. Corresponding companies are springing up.

Loud Fortune Business Insights The global market for military drones will grow from the current 13.3 billion euros to 33.4 billion euros in 2030. Both deadly and spying drones can now shrink to the size of the palm of your hand – missile defense is simply financially murderous. What is needed is the brilliant idea, the best solution: drones that can switch off drones are being developed. “Ukraine has become a drone power in recent years and especially since the beginning of the war,” said Ulrike Franke, from ECFR dem ZDF.