The return of donald trump to the White House It is very bad news for a EU orphaned of leadership, with populism in its best form since the Second World War and with glimpses of a trade war on the horizon. But there is someone who has celebrated this victory as his own: the Hungarian Victor Orbánwho feels his illiberalism and his crusade against reinforced immigration.
In Brussels They try to reduce the impact of the news that comes from the other side of the world. Atlantic. In the community capital they feel better prepared than during the Republican’s first term. But eight years later, the world is more hostile, the EU is less united and Donald Trump is equally – or more – unpredictable.
Viktor Orban will receive this Thursday and Friday within the framework of the informal summit held by the Hungarian Presidency of the Council to its European partners. He will not roll out the red carpet, but he will smile from ear to ear for the triumph of his American friend, whom he champions and admires. “The greatest comeback in American political history! Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his huge victory. “A much-needed triumph for the world!” said the Magyar prime minister on X (formerly Twitter), the first leader of the Old Continent to react to the republican victory.
Orbán and Trump share their radical vision against immigration, a provocative style, an anti-establishment speech and an idea that it is necessary to stop the ukrainian wareven if this occurs at the cost of the cession of territory to the Russia of Vladimir Putin.
The rest of the ultra forces in Europe have also come out in a rush to congratulate themselves. “You will bethe most important president of the United States in modern history. The hope of all freedom- and peace-loving patriots in America and Europe is now on your shoulders,” he outlined. the neo-nazi leader of AfD in Thuringia, Björn Hocke.
“Americans make Trump is great again and Trump makes the United States also again,” they cry from the Austrian FPÖ. One of the most euphoric has been the Italian Matteo Salvini: “Patriotism, border control, tax cuts, christian roots, freedom of expression, commitment to world peace. Common sense, passion and hope WIN in the USA! What a historic day!”
Orban has been isolated these years at the table European Councilbut with its right of veto it has torpedoed many of the EU’s decisions on foreign matters, weakening the voice of the community bloc in an increasingly volatile and hostile world. Now it wins as an ally on the global chess board the most powerful power and Europe’s main partner. The near future of the EU was also at stake in the North American ballotss. And the result of the polls threatens enlarge fractures and divisions present in the club.
Europeans are quick to congratulate him
In Brussels they have been preparing for this scenario for months. The clear mandate was to be better prepared to avoid the confusion and awkwardness of 2016when Trump’s landing caught the Europeans on the wrong foot. Community leaders have been quick to congratulate Trump. The reactions that come from Ursula Von der Leyen until Olaf Scholz They agree on two aspects: the US is an essential partner with whom they are willing and obliged to work and, in parallel, The EU must strengthen its independence and strategic autonomy
“We will work for a Europe more unitedstronger and more sovereign in this new context. Cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and values,” said the French president. Emmanuel Macron. The former Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Arancha González Laya sums it up like this: “Trump is not the problem. Harris would not have been the solution. Ehe future of Europe is in the hands of Europeans. “The work has to start right now.”
Internally, the EU arrives at the Donald Trump 2.0 mandate with a clear lack of leadershipespecially relevant in the Franco-German axis, the traditional rudder of the community ship. Germany holds elections next year. Olaf Scholz arrives with minimal popularity ratings and France will do the same in 2027 with both countries suffocated by the rise of far-right forces.
A turbulent global context
Furthermore, the war in Gaza has shaken the entire foundations of the multilateral order. International laws have been blown up in the Fringe and the EU has been unable to defend them, as it has done with Ukraine. During his first presidency, Trump has already given huge slaps to the multilateral systemand in extension to the global economy, to international peace or to the climate fight by distancing itself from the Iranian nuclear agreement, withdrawing from the Paris Agreements either moving the embassy to Jerusalem.
One of the big concerns in the EU leads to Ukraine. During the campaign, Trump has promised to achieve peace in the conflictwhich is heading into its third year. He has not explained how, but he has given the first brushstrokes: cutting off aid to kyiv and forcing it to negotiate peace. Analysts have long argued that this was part of Vladimir Putin’s strategy.
The EU, on the other hand, has always bet that the battle would only be won on the ground: “To win the peace, you have to win the war“has been one of the most repeated phrases in the corridors of community power. Faced with this new reality, Europeans are facing an enormous problem, since US military aid is unaffordable for them. “Let’s not rush. Trump will take office next year and the European position has not changed: we are committed to supporting Ukraine to regain its integrity and territorial sovereignty”, has reacted Peter Stanospokesperson for the High Representative Josep Borrell.
The other front that is opening is that of trade war. Europe, which has just approved thetariffs on Chinese electric carslooks for a formula to avoid getting caught in the crossfire of the battle waged between the United States and Chinaincreasingly protectionists. And that will most likely increase. Within their confines, they fear that the tariffs that the magnate has already imposed on European steel and aluminum will increase.
Trump’s continued threats to leave the NATO They leave no less situation in the headquarters of the Atlantic Alliance. The newly appointed secretary general, Mark Rutterecalled in his congratulations that “your leadership will once again be key to keeping the common defense forum strong.” On his first visit to Brussels, Trump He blamed his allies for not meeting the 2% spending threshold in defense and threatened to separate himself from the Article 5the sacred collective defense clause.
In the election campaign he even encouraged Russia to attack European countries that fail to meet defense spending. And its strategy in the next five years, with an EU still very dependent on North American protection on its borders, increases nervousness in a global context where authoritarian leaders and war conflicts emerge.
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