donald trump He has won the US presidential elections again. Uncertainty about what policies it will carry out at the height of the rise of the extreme right looms over the European Union and globally. At the international level Ukraine and the Middle East are especially looked at. But there is a very worrying derivative of the Western Sahara conflict.
The events to date are as follows. In December 2020as he was about to end his first term, Trump announced that he had signed a “proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.”
The announcement also included an agreement according to which Morocco and Israel They agreed to the full establishment of diplomatic relations. The Moroccan kingdom thus joined the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, which also signed similar agreements under the US umbrella.
Trump’s decision was not specifically reversed by the Administration led by Joe Biden. But there was also no progress in concrete actions that reflected that support. What’s more, in September of last year there was a trip of a senior US diplomatic representativeJoshua Harris, to the Saharawi refugee population camps in Tindouf (Algeria).
There he met with the president of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and secretary general of Polisario, Brahim Ghali. He also visited Algiers and Rabat. The visit was interpreted as a boost from the US in the search for a political solution negotiated within the UN.
What will happen now in Trump’s second stage in the White House? At the moment the king of Morocco, Mohamed VItook advantage of Trump’s victory to congratulate him and thank him for his “historic position” in relation to the announcement made in 2020 regarding Western Sahara. The monarch highlighted that both countries forged an alliance that reached “unprecedented levels” during Trump’s first stage in the White House.
The Polisario Front remembers that the context has changed because European Justice has ruled in favor of the Sahrawis
The vision of Polisario Frontlegitimate representative of the Sahrawi people before international institutions, is that it is still too early to make assessments in this regard. “It is true that the Sahrawi people, with their re-election, once again keep in mind the tweet they published weeks before leaving office in the previous legislature,” Abdullah Arabi, Polisario delegate in Spain, explains to this medium.
However, Arabi recalls, beyond that fact, “the context has changed.” There are several elements that justify it according to the Sahrawi representative. The most relevant is the sentence handed down by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) at the beginning of October. “The distinct and separate status of the territory of Western Sahara with respect to Morocco is confirmed and insisted on. There can be no doubt that the legal nature of the issue has not moved one bit, it is solid, and the basis from which to start allow the Sahrawi people to exercise their right to self-determination and independence,” he points out.
“Therefore, we are confident that, especially in the face of current geopolitical context, the new administration is up to the demands that the moment requires. The Sahrawi people, for their part, have faced very complex situations throughout more than five decades of resistance, but continue to fight with total determination for their right to self-determination and independence,” Arabi concludes.
For its part, Isaiah Barreñadaprofessor of International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science and Sociology of the Complutense University of Madrid, highlights in conversation with this medium that Trump’s announcement “had political relevance in the sense that it induced other countries to follow in his footsteps.” At that time there were some countries, especially African ones, that opened consulates in the occupied territories of Western Sahara.
Trump’s statement in 2020 had no concrete consequences on US foreign policy
But “it had no concrete consequences in terms of US foreign policy,” adds Barreñada. He gives as an example that the joint military maneuvers that the US carries out with Morocco They are not made in the Sahara or that the Americans have not opened consulates. A vision shared by Laura Casielles, journalist, poet and researcher. In conversation with Public It focuses on looking at the situation in the Middle East, taking into account the relationship between the American position and the role of Israel.
“Trump comes to power again with a much tougher scenario regarding the Palestinian genocide in Gaza and it is to be hoped that their measures will be forceful. If something is asked of Morocco, it is expected that it will have a rebound effect in the Sahara. If Morocco does a favor to Israel, perhaps Morocco will return it,” he reflects.
Both Barreñada and Casielles agree that Morocco can continue taking advantage of the relationship generated with Israel but it also has to carefully consider that it has a very critical public opinionlike that of most Arab societies, about the Israeli military offensive.
It’s not a question between Republicans and Democrats.
The United States, highlights Barreñada, is a member of the UN Security Council and in charge of writing the drafts of the resolutions that have to do with the Sahara. It is also in the group of friends of the Sahara created by the Secretary General of the UN and they are one of the trusted countries of the special envoy, currently Staffan De Mistura. “The problem is that the US, along with France and Spain, has placed itself in a group of members that have lost a certain legitimacy,” he points out.
“Trump did not know how to place Western Sahara on the map,” says Professor Isaías Barreñada
The professor points out that in the Sahrawi issue there is no clear political dividing line between Democrats and Republicans. “The two parties are historically divided. There are Democrats critical of the Moroccan occupation like the Kennedy Foundation and others like Hillary Clinton who always had a certain proximity to Morocco,” he says. On the other hand there is the “old republican school”, represented for example by John Bolton. They are more critical of Morocco and are closer to Algeria’s centrality in the region.
How is Trump going to act? “There are no elements to make many predictions. The three-way agreement was a purely transactional move. Trump himself did not know how to place Western Sahara on the map, others cooked it up. It is not the product of Trump’s own issue and is subject to unpredictability. But we can also find the opposite,” adds Barreñada.
Consulate? Economic investments?
“I see no signs that the US is getting more involved. There are some Algerian analysts who say that they have already reached the limit and that it is not a priority, especially in this isolationist turn that has characterized Trump,” says the university professor. In any case, he adds that if something characterizes Trump cares little about International Law or the rules. “That can be a problem for the Sahrawis,” he says.
Regarding the consulate, Barreñada comments that the US is not Haiti, a country that has a consulate and does not even have staff. “The US does not do those things, it would open a consulate if it is interested. The issue is that the Sahara is among its priorities. I would be very surprised. We will have to see how it evolves. Unlike before, it now has support from lobby who know how the State Department works,” he concludes.
“Perhaps that is something they may want to recover,” says Casielles about the consulate. But the journalist focuses more on the “economic framework.” “If new economic injections come in, this may be compensation for what is being lost on the other hand,” he highlights in relation to how the CJEU ruling affects it. “Perhaps preferential agreements with the US could serve as compensation for Morocco,” he adds.
50 years of the occupation
In 1975, 50 years have passed since the Green March, Spain’s abandonment of its former province and the Moroccan occupation of the Sahrawi territories. “It is a year where Morocco probably wants to give visibility to this issue and for events or symbolic statements to occur that help assert its interests. Requests for explicitness may be more visible than at other times,” Casielles warns.
In 1975, 50 years have passed since the Green March and Spain abandoned its former province.
The specialist also remembers that for some time now classified historical archives have been uncovered that reveal the important role that the United States played at the time of abandonment. “It is still a reminder that the American presence in the entire conflict is not new and with Trump it may experience a new and terrible episode,” he adds.
Trump’s victory also coincides with the step taken by France and Emmanuel Macron, which has also recognized, much more explicitly than Pedro SanchezMoroccan sovereignty of Western Sahara. Some events that have provoked the anger of Algeriawhich decided to block economic relations. And, by the way, unlock them with Spain despite the fact that the Government has not changed its position. Foreign sources prefer not to comment on this event.
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