Tariffs that are imposed and eliminated at full speed, in a sway that baffles markets and commercial partners. Promises of drastic reduction of public spending, while advertising tax cuts that further aggravate the deficit. Alarming falls in the values of the … Bag, a depreciation of the dollar that threatens to destabilize the economy, and inflation that still does not lower what is expected. A scenario of permanent uncertainty, where the rules of the game change without prior notice. The economic policy of Donald Trump At the beginning of his mandate he seems improvised, chaos without apparent method, but the White House insists that it is not. What seems chaos, defend, is actually part of a meticulously designed plan: the call ‘Mar-A-Lago Agreement‘.
The ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’, as it is known in English, is a strategy negotiated by Trump’s economic, commercial and diplomatic team with a clear objective: intentionally weaken the dollar and restructure global trade in favor of the US economy, making it more competitive against countries that until now impose higher commercial barriers.
The name of the agreement refers to Trump’s mansion in Florida, in the same way that the ‘Accord Plaza’ of 1985 received its name by the hotel where an agreement was signed between the US, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Germany to devalue the dollar and strengthen US industrial competitiveness under the presidency of Ronald Reagan.
According to the details that Trump’s team has slipped in recent days, the key to this agreement is to reduce the strength of the dollar to benefit exports against rivals such as China and Japan. For this, the strategy includes aggressive tariffs as a pressure method, classifying countries into three categories: allies (green code): with whom greater cooperation would be sought; Countries in negotiation (yellow code) with which there would be margin, and adversaries (red code) to whom maximum commercial and financial pressure would apply.
The most striking of the Plan is that its drivers, including the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, believe that drastic measures would generate an initial recession that would accelerate the negotiations and facilitate the reduction of interest rates, an objective that Trump pursues since he assumed the position.
That explains that, unlike his first mandate, Donald Trump does not yield or show signs of panic when the markets collapse. His economic team maintains that, instead of measuring success with short -term stock behavior, the White House prefers to evaluate the reaction of the great US businessmen, considering that it is they who really drive the economy.
Trump spokesmen call ignoring ‘animal spirits’, a term popularized by John Maynard Keyneswhich refers to the subjective confidence and perception of investors on the economic future. In this case, the Trump administration rules out as a reliable metric, arguing that market volatility does not necessarily reflect the effectiveness of their policies.
Besentthe Secretary of the Treasury, said that “market corrections are healthy and necessary”, and that the immediate effects of Trump’s economic policy – including tariffs and the devaluation of the dollar – must be evaluated based on their long -term impact on employment, manufacturing and industrial growth.
Therefore, despite the collapse of the markets, which touch a correction period and could anticipate a recession, Trump does not give ground. Far from moderating their speech, he insists that Americans must tighten their belt. «Stop a little, because then a time of wealth will come without limits. We will have so much money that they will not know what to do with him, ”he said recently aboard the official aircraft Air Force One.
Cheap screens
Besent has reinforced this idea by minimizing the fall of the stock market, qualifying it as “healthy and normal.” Regarding the increase in the cost of living, he rejected the idea that prosperity depends on cheap goods. «The American dream is not to let them consume cheap flat screen”He said, in reference to the dependence of imported products at low cost.
The United States also proposes to offer other countries or investors the option to change reservations in dollars and short -term treasure bonds by long -term financial instruments, such as perpetual bonds. The idea is to relieve pressure on short -term debt and guarantee financial stability, without losing the dominance of the dollar in global markets.
However, this strategy clashes with the need to maintain confidence in the dollar as a world reserve currency and attract foreign investments. Stephen Miran, the next president of the Council of Economic Advisors, argues that “the origin of economic imbalances is the persistent overvaluation of the dollar, which prevents the balance of international trade.” According to his analysis, “this overvaluation is due to the inelastic demand of reserve assets,” and warns that “as the global GDP grows, the burden of financing these assets and maintaining the US defense umbrella. It becomes increasingly heavy, falling mainly in the manufacturing sector and in trade goods.” Look suggests that this model is not sustainable and that “a dollar devaluation may be necessary to restore the competitiveness of the US economy.”
With this scenario, The Mar-a-Lago agreement becomes one of Trump’s most risky economic bets. What their allies see as a restructuring of global trade, their critics consider it a reckless play with unpredictable consequences.
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