“I don’t see that at all,” said the Republican when asked about a new candidacy in 2028.
Former President of the United States Donald Trump (Republican) said this Sunday (September 22, 2024) that he will not run for President again if he is defeated by Kamala Harris (democrat) in this year’s elections. He spoke in an interview with the American program Full Measure.
When asked by presenter Sharyl Attkinson about his participation in the 2028 election, if he is defeated at the polls in November this year, Trump responded: “No, I don’t think so. I think… that’s all it will be. […] I don’t see that at all.”
US ELECTIONS
The United States operates with a different electoral system than Brazil. Unlike the electoral format adopted by other countries, the candidate with the highest total number of votes does not necessarily win, but rather the one who wins the most votes. number of delegates.
To understand the challenges that Harris and Trump will face in November, it is necessary to clarify some points:
- each US state has a number of delegates, calculated proportionally to its population and representation in the House and Senate;
- to win the election, at least 270 of the 538 delegates at stake are needed
- of the 50 US states, in 48 (and the District of Columbia) the candidate with the most votes wins all the Electoral College delegates from the region. In Maine and Nebraska they are divided proportionally to the number of votes.
However, the keys to the White House can be defined by 7 Statesthe so-called swing statesor Pendulum states.
The term refers to regions in which voters sometimes vote Republican and sometimes Democrat. In other words, there is no clear party loyalty. This is different from historically aligned states, such as Californiawhich has voted for a Democrat since 1992or Alabama, where the votes have been going to the Republican Party for 44 years.
They are also where White House candidates focus their campaigns in order to win votes from divided voters. “swing states” vary according to each election.
Research Aggregator Averages Real Clear Politics show Kamala numerically ahead of Trump in 4 of the 7 swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania), but by very little. There is a technical tie in all of them.
There is no exact definition of the criteria that identify a “swing state” and experts often disagree about which territories can be defined in this way. However, some points are considered for the definition. They are:
- analysis of electoral history: whether the State elected a Democrat in one election and a Republican in another in recent years;
- if the votes were very close and the winning candidate in the territory won by a small margin;
- opinion polls and voting intentions that indicate similar voter support for the Democratic and Republican parties.
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